The cocoa market begins 2026 in search of balance

The global cocoa market begins 2026 in a transitional context after years marked by high volatility and successive supply shocks, according to StoneX. After reaching levels close to $12,500 per tonne at the end of 2025, prices underwent a correction and returned to the range of $5,000 per tonne in New York. Nevertheless, prices remain historically high, reflecting reduced global inventories and the accumulated effects of two failed harvests in West Africa. The first signs of the 2025/26 crop in Ivory Coast and Ghana indicate an improvement in the pace of deliveries, supported by more favorable weather conditions at the end of 2025. Despite this, vulnerabilities related to soil moisture and phytosanitary problems persist, keeping the market alert to the risk of new production losses throughout the cycle. At the same time, producers outside the African axis are gaining relevance. Ecuador stands out with exports above the historical average and productivity advances, while Indonesia, ...