The cocoa market in 2026: between downward pressure and structural upward risk

(Agraria.pe) The global cocoa market enters 2026 with a landscape of uncertainty, marked by downward pressures in the short term and structural risks that could drive up prices in the future. This is highlighted by Gilder Meza, a specialist in the cocoa value chain, who analyzes the key factors affecting the sector's evolution. Downward pressures in the short termThe figures for the grindings of the fourth quarter of 2025 reflect a significant contraction: in Europe, activity fell by 8.3% year-on-year, while in Asia it declined by 4.8%. In North America, the performance remained virtually stable, with a slight increase of 0.3%. Added to this is the increase in global inventories, with a projection by the ICCO pointing to higher stocks in the 2024/25 campaign (+4.2%), and ICE inventories hovering around 1.77 million bags. Better climatic conditions in West Africa have favored the harvest in key countries such as Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, increasing production flows and contributing ...