The European Commission raised forecasts for wheat and rapeseed production in 2023/24 FY, which increased the pressure on quotations

Published 2023년 5월 31일

Tridge summary

The European Commission has increased its wheat and canola production forecasts for 2023/24, which could lead to lower prices despite the reduced sunflower production estimates. However, the drought in the Maghreb countries, including Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya, is expected to increase the demand for European grain, potentially causing political and economic instability in the region and increasing food prices. The drought has significantly reduced the harvest forecasts in these countries, leading to a projected record import of 25.1 million tons of wheat and barley.

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Original content

Increased EU wheat and canola production forecasts in FY 2023/24 increase pressure on prices, but are supported by lower crop forecasts for North African countries. Compared to previous estimates, the European Commission has increased production forecasts for 2023/24 MR: At the same time, production estimates were reduced: The forecast for sunflower production in the EU was left at 10.5 million tons, which would be 16.7% higher than last year's 9 million tons and 8.1% higher than the 5-year average. After a long weekend on the stock exchange in Paris, the futures of the main agricultural crops fell in price: The MARS agency has lowered its harvest forecasts in the Maghreb countries (North Africa) due to a long drought, which will increase the demand for European grain in the new season, lead to political and economic instability in the region, increase food prices and import dependence. The Maghreb region, which includes Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Libya, is currently ...

Source: Graintrade