The market dynamics of the South African wheat industry

At the end of September, South Africa closed its 2023-24 marketing year for wheat. We had a decent harvest of 2,05 million tonnes during the season, just above the five-year average harvest of 1,98 million tonnes. South Africa achieved this harvest despite a challenging production season. For example, the Western Cape, which produces nearly two-thirds of South Africa's wheat crop, suffered heavy floods in September 2023 of the previous season, which, at the time, had raised fears of potential significant crop losses. But the wheat fields recovered towards the end of the year and subsequently delivered a decent crop. Still, because of the mild uptick in consumption, South Africa's decent wheat production of 2,05 million tonnes did not imply that imports would be stable. Quite the opposite, the imports increased by 15% from the previous season to 1,93 million tonnes in the 2023-24 season. By the end of September 2024, much of the imported wheat also helped to stabilize the stocks ...