Data shows that in Q1 2026, the price increase for U.S. and Russian PBO fish fillet exports to Europe will range between $200 and $500 per ton. Currently, the price of a single frozen fish fillet from Russia is already at $3,500 per ton (excluding tax), while the U.S. equivalent is as high as $3,900 per ton.
In July of this year, German retailers Aldi Sud and Aldi Nord reduced the retail price of narrow pollock fillets to €2.49 per box in an attempt to stimulate sluggish market consumption. However, this price reduction was based on the assumption that raw material prices would remain low, and it now appears that this strategy will be difficult to sustain. Industry insiders point out that as raw material prices continue to rise, profit margins at the retail end are being further squeezed, and new rounds of retail contract negotiations will begin in February next year. If European factories lack sufficient single-frozen inventory by then, they will inevitably turn to China for secondary frozen products.
The situation on the raw material side is even more tense. In the 45th week (November 3 to 9), the CFR China port price for narrow pollock raw materials rose further to $1,700, reaching a near ten-year high. A Chinese processor bluntly stated, "Raw materials always increase in price at the end of the year, but this year is more severe because the high price of true cod has directly pushed up the narrow pollock market."
For the raw material prices in Q1 2026, the main offer from Russian suppliers is around $1,500 per ton, while Chinese processing factories generally can only accept $1,400 per ton. After compromise, the price is expected to be around $1,450 per ton, up about 13% from the same period this year. The rise in raw material prices will inevitably push up finished product prices, with the price of secondary frozen narrow pollock blocks in China rising by $200 per ton in October, averaging $3,250 per ton (excluding tax).
It is worth noting that the Russian Ministry of Agriculture recently announced the 2026 catch quota, totaling 2.42 million tons, an increase of 1.7% from 2025. However, industry insiders generally believe that the increase is limited and cannot offset the pressure brought by the growth in market demand. During the Groundfish Forum, Saveliy Karpukhin, chairman of a Russian fishing company, predicted that the actual catch of narrow pollock in 2026 will be around 2 million tons. He revealed that the 418,000 tons of quota products from 2025 have already been sold out, and new supplies will not be available until after March next year.
From Qingdao to Berlin, from the Far Eastern fishing grounds to European supermarkets, the narrow pollock industry chain is experiencing a global price increase cycle.