The Philippine economy in 2050

게시됨 2021년 11월 16일

Tridge 요약

The article outlines a optimistic forecast for the Philippine economy's development by 2050, projecting a growth in per capita GDP to nearly $17,000, classifying the country as a high-income or advanced economy. This growth is attributed to a consistent 6% annual GDP growth rate, a slowing population growth, and the dominance of the services sector, similar to South Korea. The economy will be bolstered by the contribution of overseas Filipino workers (OFW) remittances, the benefits of the demographic dividend, and the improvement in education standard. Despite challenges in reaching high-level science and engineering talents, the IT-BPM sector will flourish, providing mid-level talents to global markets. The tourism industry will also thrive due to infrastructural improvements and the Build, Build, Build program. The agricultural sector will see increases in productivity and income, especially in the coconut industry, with a shift towards higher-value crops. However, the article emphasizes the need for strategic measures such as avoiding crony capitalism, opening up strategic industries for foreign investment, and restructuring agricultural lands to achieve economies of scale to realize this economic vision.

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원본 콘텐츠

Part 3 Assuming that there is a great probability that the Philippine economy will go the way that South Korea tracked in the last thirty years, as discussed in the two previous articles, adding some features of the agricultural revolutions in which Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam excelled during the same period, by 2050 the total per capita GDP of the Philippines will be close to $17,000 in today’s prices. Using current international criteria for classifying economies into the different economic levels, such a figure would entitle the Philippines to be considered as a high-income or advance economy by then. Today, the threshold to high-income status is $12,500. We are assuming that the average GDP growth for the Philippines for the next 30 years will be 6 percent (below the South Korean average). Since population growth will slow down to 1 percent annually during this period, GDP per capita will grow at 5 percent annually. Starting from the base of $4,000 in 2023—the year of ...

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