The price of Russian wheat has dropped below $300/t for the first time since August 2021 due to increased competition from other exporting countries. This comes as the "grain deal," which has allowed for the export of 23 million tons of grain from Ukrainian ports, is set to expire on March 18. While the extension of the deal is being negotiated, both the UN and the UN Secretary-General have called for its extension, citing the contribution of Ukrainian and Russian food products and fertilizers to global food security and price levels. SovEcon expects further declines in Russian wheat prices in the short term, but notes that the potential for decline is limited and global wheat prices are currently at a low level with a tight balance and high risk of supply disruptions from Black Sea ports.