Tuna (bonito) prices continue to rise, Thailand and Ecuador canneries resist high prices!

In Bangkok, Thailand, the CFR price for mackerel (1.8-3.4kg specifications) remained in the range of 1,500–1,580 US dollars/ton throughout the month. During the 35th week (August 25–31), some small and medium-sized canneries were forced to transact at slightly higher prices, but large processing plants continued to resist, continuing to lower prices, hoping to finalize contracts at even lower prices in September. Industry sources said that the fishing situation in the western and central Pacific Ocean had improved in the past two weeks, giving buyers more bargaining power.

Ecuador is currently in the first 72-day fishing closure period for fish aggregating devices (FAD), and the decrease in catch has made supply tighter, but demand from canneries remains strong. The ex-vessel price for mackerel in Manta is stable at 1,650 US dollars/ton, while shipowners continue to report prices of 1,700 US dollars/ton. Meanwhile, the supply of yellowfin tuna is exceptionally abundant, with production in the eastern Pacific Ocean increasing by about 50% year-on-year. Yellowfin tuna over 10kg in Manta is trading at 1,900–2,000 US dollars/ton, while large yellowfin tuna in Mexico once sold for 2,200 US dollars/ton, but it is expected to drop to 2,100 US dollars/ton in September.

The imposition of additional tariffs by the United States is also a significant driver of market volatility. Starting from August 7, the canned tuna tariff from Thailand to the United States increased from 10% to 19%, and Ecuador's tariff increased from 10% to 15%, both of which weakened export profits. Despite this, Thailand is still expected to export 121,000 tons of canned products to the United States in 2024, valued at 554 million US dollars, maintaining its key position in the U.S. industry chain. In contrast, Mexico, with its advantage of 0% tariff, along with fleet expansion, is rapidly increasing its market share in the region.

Overall, the mackerel market will continue to maintain a high-position tug-of-war in the short term, with high demand and high supply intertwined. Buyers hope to drive down prices, while sellers rely on the fishing closure period and inventory to gamble. The market trend in September will depend on the actual fishing progress in the western and central Pacific Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean.