Prices of mill-quality tur (arhar or pigeon peas) in India are expected to rise further due to a predicted decrease in domestic supply, with production likely to fall by 20-30% due to unseasonal rainfall and farmers shifting to other crops. This has led to a 22% increase in prices over the past three months and 32% over the past year. Daily supply of tur in key markets is expected to decrease by 25-30% this season. The monsoon performance will play a key role in determining food inflation trajectory in FY24. The rising prices of certain agriculture commodities and possible deficient monsoon rainfall due to El Nino could lead to further inflation in India.