Ukrainian exports to decline sharply in 2024/25

Published 2024년 12월 24일

Tridge summary

Ukrainian grain exports are projected to see a significant decrease in the 2024/25 season due to a drop in production, especially in corn, caused by a severe heat wave. The country's corn harvest is expected to be its lowest since 2017. Despite these challenges, Ukraine remains a major source of cereal imports for the European Union. The EU relies heavily on Ukraine for soft wheat, corn, and barley, with over half of its corn imports being Ukrainian. Ukraine has implemented an export support system to help address these challenges, though the transit of Ukrainian cereals through Romania faces uncertainties due to political reasons and decreasing traffic at the port of Constanța.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Ukrainian grain exports are expected to fall sharply this season: according to the latest forecasts from UkrAgroConsult, they would reach only 16.2 Mt for wheat and 20.4 Mt for corn, compared to 18.3 Mt and 29.7 Mt respectively for the 2023/24 season. This is explained by a marked drop in production, especially for corn: the harvest reached only 26 Mt in 2024 compared to 31 Mt in 2023 and up to 35 or even 40 Mt before the war. This is the lowest harvest since 2017. The cause of this decline: the heat wave that crushed the country in July. Wheat production would be around 21.6 Mt (22.2 Mt in 2023). "Over the months of September to November, the main destinations for Ukrainian corn exports were Turkey (1 Mt), Italy (947,000 t), Spain (860,000 t), the Netherlands (477,000 t) and South Korea (244,000 t)", specifies Julie Garet, head of the Grains and Sugar unit at FranceAgriMer. Ukraine remains the leading source of cereal imports for European Union countries. As of December 17, 67% ...

Source: TerreNet