US lean hog futures decline seasonally

Published 2024년 10월 23일

Tridge summary

Hog producer margins were previously signaling contraction but are now easing as producers cycle out of higher priced rations, with farrow-to-finish operators experiencing their fifth consecutive month of positive margins in August. Sow slaughter has declined, but the breeding herd was down 3% YoY at an eight-year-low. Pigs saved per litter has risen, offsetting the declining breeding herd. Lean hog futures are declining seasonally, and margins are expected to narrow by the end of the year. Global pork demand remains robust, and US pork is gaining a competitive advantage in global markets, likely overtaking Europe as the leader in pork exports this year.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Hog producer margins were signalling contraction a year ago, but as producers are cycling out of higher priced rations, concern is easing this year, according to a recent market report from CoBank. Iowa State University estimates farrow-to-finish operators experienced their fifth consecutive month of positive margins in August at $13.63/head. And naturally, sow slaughter has declined in recent months. For August alone, sow slaughter was down 15% YoY. Still, the breeding herd was down 3% YoY on Sept. 1, at 6.044 million head which is an eight-year-low. Pigs saved per litter has continued to rise in recent quarters reaching an all-time high of 11.72 during June-August, offsetting a declining breeding herd. After peaking in July, lean hog futures are declining seasonally. Margins are expected to narrow through the end of the year. Non-feed costs remain elevated and interest in expansion is nil, so pork prices should hold their own through 2024 – yet slaughter numbers move higher in ...
Source: Thepigsite

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