Global: USDA analysts lowered the forecast for sunflower production in Ukraine

Published 2024년 9월 13일

Tridge summary

The USDA's September WASDE report lowers the global oilseed production forecast for 2024/25 MY, largely due to decreases in sunflower and rapeseed production, although soybean production is expected to rise. The soybean balance for FY 2024/25 remains steady, while global consumption, exports, and EU import forecasts have increased. The rapeseed production forecast for the EU and Russia, along with sunflower production forecasts for Ukraine, EU, Kazakhstan, and Moldova, have also been reduced. Adjustments in the rapeseed harvest for Ukraine and Canada, and sunflower in Russia, as well as the impact of dry hot weather on soybean sowing in Brazil, are expected to affect oil crop prices.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the September WASDE supply and demand report from the USDA, the forecast for the world production of oilseeds in 2024/25 MY was reduced by 3.12 to 687.42 million tons (657.82 million tons in 2023/24 MY), in particular, sunflower – by 2 million tons and rapeseed - by 1.27 million tons, which is partially compensated by an increase in the soybean harvest by 0.47 million tons. This is reported by GrainTrade. It is noted that compared to the August estimates, the new soybean balance for FY 2024/25 has almost not changed: • The estimate of initial reserves was left at the level of 112.25 mln t (100.66 mln t in 2023/24 MR). MR and 378.4 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular for Canada - by 0.3 to 7.2 million tons and Paraguay - by 0.5 to 11.2 million tons. For the USA, the estimate was left at the level of 124, 9 (113.34) million tons, although analysts expected a decrease in the forecast. • The estimate of world consumption was increased by 0.14 to 402.98 (383.29) million tons. ...

Source: Agrobusiness