USDA increased the yield estimate for major wheat producers, for Ukraine—no change

The USDA forecasts global wheat production in the 2025/26 marketing year at 828.89 million tons (+12.69 million tons compared to the previous forecast), according to the USDA report from November.

Note: The previous USDA report was in September, not October, due to the U.S. government shutdown.

The forecast for global wheat exports is 217.21 million tons (+2.49 million tons). The forecast for global ending wheat stocks has been increased to 271.43 million tons (+7.37 million tons).

The forecast for Ukraine's wheat production is estimated at 23 million tons, with exports at 15 million tons and ending stocks at 1.93 million tons. Therefore, all indicators have remained unchanged.

The forecast for U.S. wheat production is 54.01 million tons (+1.56 million tons). The export estimate remains unchanged at 24.49 million tons, with ending stocks at 24.52 million tons (+1.56 million tons).

USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the 2025/26 marketing year at 140 million tons, with an import estimate of 6 million tons and ending stocks at 124.78 million tons.