Global: USDA lowered its forecast for oilseed production in MY 2024/25 due to lower sunseed and rapeseed harvest

Published 2024년 9월 13일

Tridge summary

The September WASDE report by USDA has revised the global oilseeds production forecast for MY 2024/25, reducing it by 3.12 million tonnes to 687.42 million tonnes, with sunseed and rapeseed production seeing a decrease. Soybean production remains steady, but there may be adjustments in Brazil's estimates. The global rapeseed production forecast has been lowered to 87.56 million tons, particularly in the EU, while global sunseed production has been reduced to 50.5 million tons. The report also anticipates an increase in EU's rapeseed imports and a slight decrease in global rapeseed exports. The prices of soybeans and rapeseed on the Chicago and Paris stock exchanges have seen an uptick in response to these changes, with the market looking forward to future adjustments in the rapeseed harvest in Ukraine and Canada, sunseed in Russia, and soybean planting in Brazil.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the September WASDE supply and demand report from USDA, the forecast of global oilseeds production in MY 2024/25 was decreased by 3.12 mln tonnes to 687.42 mln tonnes (657.82 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24), including sunseed – by 2 mln tonnes and rapeseed – by 1.27 mln tonnes, partially offset by the increase of soybean harvest by 0.47 mln tonnes. Compared to the August estimates, the new soybean balance for MY 2024/25 is almost unchanged: For MY 2023/24, the USDA experts left the forecast of soybean crop in Brazil at 153 million tons and exports – 105 million tons, although the local agency Conab estimates them at 147.38 and 92.4 million tons, respectively, so in the October report, the estimates may be adjusted. According to the report, the November futures for soybeans on the Chicago stock exchange increased by 1% to 371,4 $/t (+2.5% compared to the data after the release of the August report). The forecast of world rapeseed production for MY 2024/25 was reduced by 1.27 to 87.56 ...

Source: UkrAgroConsult