Global: USDA lowers 2024/25 oilseed production forecast due to lower sunflower and canola yields

Published 2024년 9월 13일

Tridge summary

The USDA's September WASDE report has revised the global oilseed production forecast for 2024/25 down by 3.12 million tons to 687.42 million tons, due to decreases in sunflower and rapeseed production, although soybean production is expected to rise slightly. The global rapeseed production forecast has been reduced by 1.27 million tons to 87.56 million tons, with the EU seeing a significant drop. The world sunflower production forecast has also been reduced by 2 million tons to 50.5 million tons. Despite these adjustments, the global soybean and rapeseed export forecasts have seen minor changes, and the final stocks estimate has been cut slightly. The report's implications, especially the potential adjustments in Brazil's soybean harvest and the impact on oil crop prices, are key areas of focus.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

In the September WASDE supply and demand report from the USDA, the forecast for the world production of oilseeds in 2024/25 MY was reduced by 3.12 to 687.42 million tons (657.82 million tons in 2023/24 MY), in particular, sunflower – by 2 million tons and rapeseed - by 1.27 million tons, which is partially compensated by an increase in the soybean harvest by 0.47 million tons. Compared to the August estimates, the new soybean balance for FY 2024/25 is almost unchanged: For FY 2023/24, USDA experts left the soybean harvest forecast in Brazil at 153 million tons, and exports at 105 million tons, although the local agency Conab estimates them at 147.38 and 92.4 million tons, respectively, so in the October report, estimates may be adjusted. Based on the report, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 1% to $371.4/t (+2.5% compared to data after the August report). The forecast of global rapeseed production for 2024/25 MR was reduced by 1.27 to 87.56 (89.35) ...

Source: Graintrade