USDA lowers Brazil coffee crop estimate for 2024/25

Published 2024년 11월 22일

Tridge summary

The USDA's agricultural attaché has lowered Brazil's coffee production estimate for the 2024/25 harvest to 66.4 million 60-kilo bags, a 5.8% decrease from the previous forecast, due to adverse weather conditions impacting mainly Arabica coffee crops. Despite this reduction, the production is slightly higher than the previous harvest's record. Arabica production is expected to slightly increase, while Robusta production is projected to decrease due to the same weather conditions. Brazilian coffee exports, led by the United States, are on the rise, despite high prices. The USDA anticipates a 5.3% decrease in total exports for the 2024/25 cycle, attributed to the expected recovery in exports from major competitors. Domestic consumption remains stable.

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Original content

The agricultural attaché of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised downward the estimate for Brazil's coffee production for the 2024/25 harvest, now projected at 66.4 million 60-kilo bags. The 5.8% reduction compared to the previous forecast of 69.9 million bags reflects the effects of adverse weather patterns, such as droughts and high temperatures, especially on Arabica coffee crops. Despite the revision, the estimated production for 2024/25 still slightly exceeds the harvest of 66.3 million bags recorded in the 2023/24 harvest. The Arabica coffee harvest in 2024/25 is expected to reach 45.4 million bags, an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous cycle, estimated at 44.9 million bags. On the other hand, Robusta/Conilon production is projected at 21 million bags, down 2% from 21.4 million bags in 2023/24. This reduction is attributed to unfavorable weather conditions during plant development. The climate impact was intensified by the El Niño phenomenon, ...

Source: Portal Do Agronegocio