USDA raises wheat production estimate

in 2024. The 2025 crop was the largest since 2.3 billion bushels in 2016 and compared with 1.78 billion bushels as the recent five-year average. The all-wheat harvested area in 2025 was estimated at 37,241,000 acres, down 1,392,000 acres, or 3.6%, from 38,633,000 acres in 2024. The average wheat yield in 2025 was estimated at 53.3 bushels per acre, which compared with 51.2 bushels per acre in 2024. It was the highest average yield on record, topping the second highest at 52.7 bushels per acre in 2016. The government’s assessment of all-wheat production was within reason, said Mike O’Dea, risk management consultant for StoneX, Kansas City, Missouri. “The number is OK, but I was a little surprised in that, historically, we usually see the numbers come down a little bit,” he said. “Probably a little bearish, wheat futures made new lows this morning (Oct. 1), but we’ve kind of come back. Matif wheat bounced nicely, put in a new low and rallied and closed higher. Spreads are a little ...