Weekly analysis of the global wheat market as of March 1, 2024

Published 2024년 3월 1일

Tridge summary

Weather conditions are impacting wheat markets globally, with rain in the Mediterranean moving into Western Europe, benefiting Spain and Italy but causing excess moisture in France and Great Britain. Meanwhile, the US is experiencing a mix of snow and record high temperatures. Wheat prices are under pressure due to competitive supplies from Russia, despite falling prices. German wheat is gaining competitiveness with purchases from Thailand and interest from other Asian buyers. Despite steady exports, France has ample wheat stocks. Russian wheat prices continue to decline, and Ukraine's grain exports in February exceeded last year's level by almost 12%. Wheat prices are currently around €65/t lower than their March 2023 level, leading to a bearish sentiment among traders. New restrictions by the US, EU, and UK on Russia, two years after the invasion of Ukraine, are having a short-term effect on the market.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Weather Rain in the Mediterranean will continue for the next two days and then move into Western Europe. This would benefit Spain and Italy, but bring too much moisture to France and Great Britain. In the Black Sea region, rainfall was frequent enough to contribute to soil moisture in most areas, and due to the warmer temperatures wheat is starting to wake up from its slumber. In the US, a cold air front has brought snow to the Northern Plains and will continue with snowfall and strong winds next week, while the Central and Southern Plains will see record high temperatures for the period while also receiving favorable precipitation. Global market highlights MATIF wheat is trading around multi-year lows, continuing to feel the pressure of competitive supplies from Russia, which are still limiting any major gains in European grain markets. The EU export gap narrowed from last season to 20.55 Mt and is now just 3% below last year's pace of 21.1 Mt. Falling prices in Russia, the ...

Source: Agroportal