World: What are the market signals for dairy commodity prices now?

Published 2024년 11월 7일

Tridge summary

In September, fat prices like butter and cream hit record highs, with slight declines in October due to increased UK milk production. However, European supply challenges, including reduced Irish milk output and the bluetongue virus in Germany and the Netherlands, have constrained supply. Despite higher UK milk supplies, European butter prices have surged, and the Global Dairy Trade event noted a significant price rise, especially in butter, indicating market uncertainty. This could lead to rising UK farmgate milk prices, potentially reaching 46.4ppl by January, with global market disruptions, such as possible US tariff changes, further influencing prices.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Fats prices, in particular, were sitting at record-breaking levels in September with only a marginal decline in butter and cream in October in response to signs that milk flows were back in growth in the UK. As we reported in October, butter prices fell to £6,500/t (-3%) whilst cream fell to £3,096/t or -2%. Milk supplies for GB so far in October have been running at year-on-year growth throughout the month and including data up until 26th October are now at 2.6% ahead of October last year. Increased milk production should start to feed through to declining commodity prices further but there are some signs that may muddy the picture. Production in the rest of Europe is facing some challenges, despite growth in milk prices. Irish milk production has been back all year (-4.9% from January to August) which has significantly curtailed the availability of Irish butter and cheese to the UK market. Elsewhere in Western Europe, bluetongue virus has had an impact on yields in markets ...

Source: Ahdb