Brazil: What is the impact on the sugar market if India exports more than 1Mt of sugar?

Published 2023년 3월 16일

Tridge summary

The article discusses the sugar market and its projections for the 2023/24 harvest in Brazil and the export possibilities of India. hEDGEpoint, a commodities and risk management company, predicts a conservative total offer for Brazil's next harvest due to factors like a shift towards ethanol and potential El-Niño effects, with production estimates around 34Mt. In India, the government's goal of maintaining ending stocks for at least three months of consumption is discussed, with an assumption of a comfortable lowest historic ending stock level around 5.3Mt. The article also considers the impacts of different export quotas from India and the uncertainties related to production predictions, mentioning the importance of ENSO forecasts and Brazilian export stress for trade flows.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The market suffered a slight correction in relation to the 21USc/lb of Tuesday (14) after some houses announced their optimistic vision for the production of sugar in the Center-South of Brazil in 2023/24, with figures of up to 38Mt. But another discussion has drawn attention: will India export more than the 6Mt quotas already approved? A report prepared by hEDGEpoint, a company specializing in commodities and risk management, shows the impacts that an export between 5Mt and 7Mt can mean for global trade flows and, of course, for ending stocks in India. Currently, hEDGEpoint estimates around 34Mt of sugar production during the 2022/23 harvest. Figures realized in February have been released and Maharashtra is already 2% below 2021/22, while the lead of Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka has been reduced. READ MORE > How to get more bags of sugar per ton of cane, using the same volume of inputs? “When it comes to 2023/24, we are being conservative: the shift towards ethanol should ...

Source: Jornalcana