Brazil: Wheat monthly conjunctural analysis as of March 2022

게시됨 2022년 4월 8일

Tridge 요약

In March, the global wheat market faced challenges due to export restrictions from Ukraine and Russia, leading to record high prices in US futures exchanges and Argentina. As a result, wheat prices in Brazil surged, potentially encouraging producers to increase cultivation area despite high production costs. Brazil's preliminary export data for March showed the second largest monthly volume since 1996, while imports and import prices increased significantly. Conab adjusted import estimates for the 2021/22 period to 7 million tons, with domestic consumption estimated at 12.55 million tonnes. The USDA predicted a slight increase in the global production of the 2021/22 wheat crop but anticipated a decrease in global exports due to reductions from Russia and Ukraine. The prices of derivatives such as bulk bran and bagged product experienced significant increases in Brazil, impacting the liquidity of negotiations.

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원본 콘텐츠

wheat crop in brazil EMBRAPA.jpg The agents of the international wheat market were apprehensive in March, due to restrictions on cereal exports by Ukraine and Russia. In Ukrainian ports, activities have been paralyzed since the beginning of the conflict, and the planting of the next crop in the country could be hampered and/or impossible. As a result, wheat prices on US futures exchanges reached record levels in the last month. In Argentina, prices also had significant reactions. In the United States, considering the February and March averages, the first month of the Soft Red Winter on the Chicago Stock Exchange (CME Group) appreciated 39.6%, at US$ 11.2477/bushel (US$ 413, 28/t). On the Kansas Stock Exchange, the same-maturity contract for Hard Winter wheat advanced 31.8% to $10.9882/bushel ($403.75/t). In Brazil, negotiations took place only when agents had the greatest need to buy, in view of high domestic prices. State averages in March reached the nominal historical maximums ...

출처: Brasilagro