Will the weather be the protagonist of the harvest?

Weather emerges as the main player for the 2025/2026 summer crop, with the advancement of sowing making meteorological conditions decisive for productivity and the producer's margin. In a scenario of pressured prices and exchange rate, efficiency in farm management and attention to the rainfall regime can make a difference in the harvest. Céleres highlighted in its October report the possible impacts of La Niña on the weather and soybean productivity, according to an analysis by Erickson Oliveira, an agribusiness analyst at the company. According to the projections, there is a high probability of a weak La Niña, a scenario that tends to maintain productivity close to the national average, especially benefiting producers in the South, historically more vulnerable to drought. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology defines the El Niño and La Niña phenomena by deviations of ±0.8°C in the Pacific temperature, with October projections indicating that the crop should remain close to ...