Will world coffee prices increase due to a supply shortage in the 2021-2022 crop?

Published 2021년 2월 6일

Tridge summary

The global coffee market is expected to experience a deficit due to a decrease in production, particularly in Brazil, where adverse weather conditions are expected to result in lower yields. The country is projected to harvest less than 50 million bags of coffee in April 2021, a decrease from the previous year. Vietnam's coffee production is also being affected by high rainfall. However, as travel restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic are being eased and vaccines become widely available, coffee demand is recovering. This, coupled with the expected decrease in production, is likely to lead to a slight increase in coffee prices, especially for Arabica coffee. India's coffee producers and exporters are expected to benefit from this as the country's output is estimated to increase to 5.3 million bags, thanks to favorable weather.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

The global coffee market is tightening. In particular, Brazil - by far the largest producer and exporter in the world - is estimated to harvest much lower yields in crop year 2021 - 2022 due to adverse weather, mainly drought. Brazil's Conab forecasting agency estimates that the country will likely harvest less than 50 million bags of coffee in April 2021, down from 63 million bags in the same period last year. Some other forecasts suggest that the next harvest crop output could reach as low as 44-45 million bags. Arabica coffees, which often face a biennial production cycle with varying yields, will have a low yield year with an expected yield of 30 - 33 million bags, a 35-40% decrease from the year. last. On the other hand, robusta output is likely to hold around 14-16 million bags, close to a record two years ago. Not only Brazil, in Vietnam, too high rainfall is also a factor affecting coffee production, directly affecting global supply. The recovery in coffee demand World ...

Source: Vietnambiz