World enters an era of record wheat crops and expanding exporter stocks

quality, logistics, origin flexibility, and farmer behaviour. Basse noted that “Mother Nature has been kind,” with AgResource estimating average global wheat yields in 2025 at a record 3.76 t/ha — the highest level ever recorded without a major expansion in harvested area. If normal weather persists, the 2026 global wheat crop could rise by another 2 MMT, pushing supplies to fresh highs. His presentation also highlighted a significant build-up in ending stocks among major exporting countries, with the exporter stock-to-use ratio returning to the low-20% range — one of the most comfortable positions in decades. A similar story is unfolding in corn: AgResource projects combined production in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina to exceed 616 MMT in 2025/26. Demand, however, is not rising at the same pace. Basse stressed that while global wheat exports remain elevated, growth has largely stalled. In 2026, total global wheat feeding is expected to remain flat, while feed wheat imports may ...