Apple Production for the Southern Hemisphere Set to Increase in 2023

According to the new forecast released by the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA), Apple production in the Southern Hemisphere will have a 6% YoY increase, while output for pears will only have a 1% YoY growth. The forecast gathers data from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and South Africa, concentrating on the more prominent apple and pear production in the Southern Hemisphere. The 2023 apple and pear production projections are a general recovery from the 2022 global production, which had a 7% YoY decline for apples and a 6% decrease for pears.

The global apple production forecast for the Southern Hemisphere in the 2023 season is projected at 5.1 million mt compared to last year's 4.8 million mt, a 6.5% YoY increase. All countries are projected to have a larger apple crop except for Australia, which will have an 8% YoY decline. In contrast, Argentina is expected to substantially recover from last season's harvest, which was 11% less than the previous year after coming from low yields in recent years. As a result, Argentina's apple production is forecast to increase by 24% to 525 thousand mt in 2023. WAPA’s forecast also projects for Chile to remain the largest producer of apples in the Southern Hemisphere in 2023, with 1.4 million mt, a substantial 26% increase from the previous year.

In South Africa and New Zealand, apple production is also forecasted to increase despite unfavorable weather events in both countries that have affected apple crops. South Africa is projected to increase its apple production to 1.2 million mt, a 4% YoY increase. However, in SA, the already-started apple season has had a rather dramatic start as four separate hailstorms outside the rainy season have caused significant damage in apple-producing regions. Although the apple crop was expected to be smaller for 2023 due to the hailstorms, the latest forecast projects a 4% increase. In fact, due to crop damage, the apple season in the country started earlier this year, which has increased the supply and decreased prices.

According to Kingsley Nkwane, Tridge’s Origination Manager In South Africa, by the end of W7, apples were selling at USD 0.47/kg, a drop of 6.41% WoW from USD 0.50/kg in W6. “Due to an early season for apples and lemons, the price drop is attributed to a steady increase in the supply of these fruits in the local market,” he explained.

A similar issue has been presented in New Zealand for the 2023 apple crop. New Zealand is struggling with the consequences of Cyclone Gabrielle, which hit the country in week 4 of 2023. The cyclone has caused significant flooding and landslides throughout the North Island, affecting several apple-producing regions. New Zealand apple harvest had recently begun, with many trees full of apples ready to be picked that could have potentially suffered losses. Despite the expected damages from the cyclone, New Zealand apple production is forecasted to increase by 4% from last year to 535 thousand mt.

Southern Hemisphere apple exports are also expected to increase by 5% YoY to reach 1.68 million mt. Exports from Argentina are expected to substantially recover from last year when exports reached the lowest level in recent years. For 2023, Argentinian exports are projected to increase by 31% to 83 thousand mt. For New Zealand, apple exports are expected to increase by 8% YoY while Australian exports are projected to be 1% less than in 2022 on decreased production. Brazil's exports are also expected to rebound from low 2022 figures to 70 thousand mt.

Overall, it will be a positive year for apple production in the Southern Hemisphere. However, a deeper look at South African and New Zealand crops will be needed further in the season to understand the extent of damage caused by weather issues. Although it is expected that apple crops can decrease in some of these markets, Southern Hemisphere production would be offset by large yields scheduled in Argentina, Chile, and Brazil.