New Zealand’s milk production and export outlook 2021

Published 2021년 5월 12일

New Zealand’s milk production is expected to increase by 1.2% compared to 2020, which will be increasing processed milk products in the country. Likely, production and exports of products like whole milk powder skimmed milk powder, and cheese will increase in 2021 relative to the last year. One of the primary reasons for the expectation is a recovery in China’s demand for milk and products, as China managed to control the pandemic and revive the hospitality sector.

New Zealand (NZ) is among the top ten milk-producing countries of the world with modern and advanced dairy farms. The country produced 21.98 million metric tons of milk in 2020, slightly increased from the volume recorded in 2019. It is expected the production will touch 22.2 million metric tons in 2021, which is an increase of roughly 1.2%. Milk production in the first half of 2021 is expected to remain strong and will be 3.3% more than the volume recorded in 2020 during the same period. However, in the second half, the production level is forecasted to fall back to average levels. The dairy industry has a significant role in NZ’s economy. It contributes to 5% of the GDP in 7 regions in 2019 and employs approximately 50,000 people living in the regional and rural communities.

*Projected value.

Higher milk production is also projected to boost processed dairy products like whole and skim milk powders, cheese, and infant milk formula. Whole milk powder production is now forecasted at 1.56 million metric tons in 2021, which is 1% more than 2020’s estimates. At the same time, skim milk production is projected to increase by 4% compared to 2020 and touch 385,000 metric tons. It is anticipated that NZ’s infant milk formula production will fall in 2021, and the surplus milk be accommodated in milk powder production. NZ also produces high-fat products like butter, anhydrous milk fat, and UHT cream.

In 2020, the export volumes of liquid milk were impacted by the outbreak of COVID-19, and the exports fell by 13% during the first nine months of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. However, the exports started to recover in the second half of the year as consumer demand and logistical disruptions recovered in Asia. By the end of the year, NZ exported 250,000 metric tons of liquid milk, which is only 9% less than the previous year. In 2021, the exports are projected to recover and increase by 4% to touch 260,000 metric tons. Similarly, processed dairy exports will also increase in 2021 compared to the volumes recorded in 2020. The whole milk powder exports are forecasted to be up by 0.5%, cheese exports by 3%, and skimmed milk powder, butter, anhydrous milk fat exports are expected to increase by a total of 11%.