1. Weekly News

Global

Thailand’s Rice Exports Expected to Decline Sharply in 2025

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Thailand's rice exports will decline by 24.2% year-on-year (YoY) to 7.5 million metric tons (mmt) in 2025, down from 9.94 mmt in 2024. This is due to India’s resumption of white rice exports and a projected 10 mmt increase in global rice production. Meanwhile, the USDA forecasts India’s exports at 22.5 mmt, up 26.4% YoY, while Vietnam and Pakistan’s shipments may drop to 7.5 mmt and 5.3 mmt, respectively. Major importers include the Philippines, Vietnam, and China.

Indonesia

Indonesia’s Rice Production to Surge 25.99% YoY in Jan-25 to Apr-25

Indonesia projects rice production to reach 13.95 mmt from Jan-25 to Apr-25, marking a 25.99% YoY increase. The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimates that rice harvests from Feb-25 to Apr-25 will total 12.71 mmt, the highest in seven years. In Jan-25, unmilled rice production reached 2.16 mmt, up 42.32% from 1.52 mmt in Jan-24. Total unmilled rice production for Jan-25 to Apr-25 is expected to reach 24.22 mmt.

Vietnam

Vietnamese Rice Export Prices Declined in Early 2025

Since early 2025, Vietnamese rice export prices have been declining due to India's decision to lift its white rice export ban, increasing global supply. Meanwhile, demand from key Vietnamese importers such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and China remains weak. The Vietnamese Minister of Industry and Trade stated in a government meeting on March 5 that global rice output will rise by 10 mmt compared to 2024, further disrupting the supply-demand balance. This price decline is not limited to Vietnam, as India's rice export prices also hit a 20-month low, while Thailand's Rice Exporters Association projects a 30% YoY drop in Q1-25 exports.

Vietnam's Mekong Delta to Produce 24.06 MMT of Rice in 2025

Rice output in Vietnam's Mekong Delta will reach 24.06 mmt in 2025, covering 3.79 million hectares (ha), with the 2024/25 crop expected to yield 10.77 mmt from 1.505 million ha. By late Feb-25, 4.17 mmt had been harvested from 605 thousand ha, leaving 6.598 mmt yet to be gathered. In response to falling rice prices, Vietnam's Ministry of Agriculture and Environment plans to closely monitor global market trends, especially policy shifts in key exporting countries like India and Thailand, while providing timely updates to local businesses and adjusting production and export strategies accordingly.

Thailand

Thailand Seeks Cooperation with India and Vietnam to Stabilize Rice Prices

Thailand is seeking cooperation with India and Vietnam to address falling rice prices, as local farmers demand more government support amid a 30% YoY drop in Thai rice prices to USD 255 per metric ton (mt). The Thai Trade Minister stated that discussions are underway to reduce competition and stabilize global rice prices, ensuring farmers maintain stable incomes. However, further meetings are needed to finalize potential measures. Thailand, the world’s second-largest rice exporter, is expected to see a 24% YoY decline in exports to 7.5 mmt in 2025, mainly due to India’s resumption of rice exports.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W10 2024 to W10 2025)

India

In W10, India's wholesale rice prices remained stable week-on-week (WoW) at USD 0.63 per kilogram (kg) but increased 1.61% month-on-month (MoM). The price rise was due to steady domestic demand and higher procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI). In the 2024/25 season, FCI increased its rice procurement to 58.2 mmt, up from 56.8 mmt in the previous year. The rice price also increased due to the rising cost of transportation and milling. Fuel prices in India increased by 3.2% MoM, raising logistics costs for rice movement from key producing states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. Milling costs rose due to higher electricity tariffs, which increased by an average of 4.5% across key rice-processing states.

Vietnam

In W10, Vietnamese rice prices remained unchanged WoW but declined 3.17% MoM to USD 0.61/kg, marking the lowest level in the region since Dec-24. The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) reported a sharp drop in the prices of 5% broken, 25% broken, and 100% broken rice, significantly impacting farmers, traders, and warehouses. The decline is primarily due to India lifting export restrictions, increasing global supply, and higher rice production in Vietnam, Thailand, and Pakistan. The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment estimates Vietnam’s total rice cultivation area at 7.03 million ha in 2025, with an expected output of 43.14 mmt.

United States

United States (US) rice prices remained unchanged WoW but fell 1.27% YoY to USD 0.78/kg in W10. The decline is primarily due to higher domestic supply from increased production and record imports. The US rice output for the 2024/25 season rose 2% YoY to 222.1 million hundredweight (cwt), driven by a 12% increase in long-grain rice production, while imports, particularly from Thailand, reached a record 47 million cwt, boosting domestic availability. Weaker export demand amid heightened competition from South American and Asian suppliers pressured prices as buyers opted for cheaper alternatives. Moreover, global rice price softening following large harvests and India's lifting of export restrictions further contributed to the price decline.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Export Markets Beyond Asia

Given the declining demand from key Asian importers like the Philippines and China, Thailand, and Vietnam should actively expand their rice exports to non-traditional markets, particularly in Africa and the Middle East. Countries such as Nigeria, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have a strong demand for affordable rice, and securing long-term trade agreements with these nations can provide a buffer against price fluctuations in traditional markets. Government-backed trade missions, promotional campaigns, and partnerships with major importers in these regions can help strengthen trade relationships. Additionally, exporters should consider adjusting rice varieties and packaging to meet regional preferences, such as broken rice for West African markets or premium long-grain rice for Gulf countries.

Enhance Value-Added Rice Products

Instead of relying solely on bulk rice exports, India and Pakistan should invest in premium and specialty rice varieties, such as organic, low-glycemic index (GI), and fortified rice, to attract higher prices and reduce the impact of global price declines. Marketing strategies should focus on positioning these products in premium consumer segments, particularly in Europe and North America, where health-conscious and organic food markets are expanding. Further investment in processing facilities to produce parboiled, instant, and ready-to-eat rice can also increase value addition and market appeal. Exporters can collaborate with retail chains and e-commerce platforms to build strong brand recognition and premium positioning for these specialty rice products.

Strategic Stockpiling and Coordinated Supply Management

To prevent market oversupply from further depressing rice prices, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan should collaborate on a coordinated export strategy, ensuring a more gradual and controlled release of rice into the global market. Governments and rice exporters can establish buffer stock mechanisms to temporarily hold excess supply when prices are low and release it when demand strengthens. Encouraging farmer cooperatives and traders to participate in strategic stockpiling will help stabilize prices and protect farmer incomes. Moreover, rice-producing countries can engage in regional dialogues to align production and export policies, reducing excessive competition and maintaining price stability.

Sources: Tridge, Agriculture, Food Mate, NoticiasAgricolas, UkrAgroConsult, Vietstock