1. Weekly News

Australia

Australia on Track for Third-Largest Wheat Harvest Amid Favorable Crop Conditions

Australia is positioned to produce its third-largest wheat crop on record, with a median forecast from a recent analyst poll projecting the harvest at 35.3 million metric tons (mmt). This optimistic outlook, driven by largely favorable growing conditions, surpasses last season's production of 34.1 mmt and the five-year average of 33.8 mmt. As the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter, this significant volume is expected to add to abundant global supplies, which have already pushed benchmark Chicago futures to five-year lows. While the overall forecast is strong, particularly with positive indicators from Western Australia, there are regional concerns. A dry spell has emerged in parts of eastern Australia, making Oct-25 rainfall critical for crops in southern New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia to reach their full potential. The harvest is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

Canada

Wet Harvest Conditions Threaten Quality of Canada's Large Durum Crop

Excessive rainfall and damp conditions across parts of the Canadian Prairies are raising significant concerns about the quality of the 2025 durum wheat crop. According to the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC), early farmer-supplied samples are showing evidence of mildew and sprouting, forms of damage that degrade the grain's value for pasta and couscous production. This development is particularly critical as Canada accounts for over half of the world's durum exports, with key markets in North America, Italy, and North Africa relying on its high-quality supply. The quality issues present a paradox for the market, as the same late-season moisture helped boost production forecasts for the 2025 harvest to 6.53 mmt, potentially the largest crop since 2020. Now, however, the focus has shifted from quantity to quality. Harvest operations have been significantly delayed in key growing areas, such as southeastern Saskatchewan, where millions of acres of durum and other cereals remain unharvested. While the full extent of the quality degradation is not yet known, the situation has introduced considerable uncertainty into the market, potentially tightening the global supply of high-grade durum wheat.

Canadian Wheat Deliveries Remain Stable as Overall Grain Movement Declines in Aug-25

According to a recent report from Statistics Canada, total deliveries of major Canadian grains saw a significant year-over-year (YoY) decline in Aug-25, falling to 3.588 mmt from 4.329 mmt in Aug-24. The agency noted that this overall slowdown in grain movement, largely driven by a sharp drop in canola deliveries, may have been influenced by tariffs on Canadian goods destined for the United States (US). In contrast to the broader trend, Canada’s wheat complex demonstrated considerable resilience. Total wheat deliveries for August remained stable, registering a marginal decrease to 2.259 mmt compared to 2.321 mmt the previous year. More notably, durum wheat deliveries ran counter to the market, increasing to 279,584 metric tons (mt) from 244,560 mt in Aug-24. This data indicates that despite wider logistical or trade-related headwinds affecting the Canadian agricultural sector, the sale of wheat remained robust. The strong flow of durum is particularly noteworthy, showing solid producer selling ahead of the challenging wet harvest conditions that emerged later in the season.

Russia

Russian Black Sea Wheat Exports Decline Sharply Amid Slower Seasonal Pace

In the week ending September 18, 2025, Russia's wheat exports from its Black Sea ports experienced a significant downturn, falling by 46% to 459,564 mt compared to the previous week. This sharp weekly decline reflects a broader slowdown in Russia's export activity for the current season. Egypt maintained its position as the top importer, receiving 215,250 mt, with other notable destinations including Yemen, Kenya, and Nigeria. Despite the weekly drop, substantial volumes remain in the pipeline, with over 1.1 mmt under loading and 1.6 mmt on vessels, a large portion of which is yet to be allocated to a final destination. Market analysts forecast this weaker export trend to continue. Projections for Sep-25 place total wheat exports between 4.2 and 4.5 mmt, representing a decrease of 18-22% YoY and a 12% drop from the four-year average. Cumulatively, total wheat exports for the 2025/26 season are expected to reach 10.6 mmt by the end of Sep-25, a substantial 27% lower than the record pace set in the previous year, signaling a much softer start to the export season.

SovEcon Downgrades Russian Wheat Export Forecast Amid Sluggish Demand

The agricultural consultancy SovEcon has issued its first downward revision for Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast, reducing the projection by 300,000 mt to 43.4 mmt. This adjustment is attributed to sluggish global demand and a notably slow start to the export season, despite earlier positive crop prospects. Wheat shipments from Jul-25 to Sep-25 are projected to be approximately 11.0 mmt, marking the weakest start to a season since 2017/18, when excluding the conflict-disrupted 2022/23 period. This slow pace is expected to persist through Oct-25, with exporters facing future challenges from seasonal weather disruptions and intensifying competition from upcoming Southern Hemisphere harvests in Australia and Argentina. Underpinning these concerns is a reduced harvest forecast for Russia’s key Southern region, especially in Southern Rostov where the government has declared a federal level emergency. Despite the bearish export outlook, Russian 12.5% protein wheat free on board (FOB) prices saw a slight increase to USD 228-229/mt, breaking a four-week decline. This price movement is linked to immediate supply tightness, a stronger ruble, and global market factors, creating a complex dynamic where cautious hand-to-mouth buying from importers could face risks later in the season.

United States

US Winter Wheat Planting and Emergence Trail Behind Last Year's Pace

As of September 28, 2025, planting of the US winter wheat crop reached 34% completion, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This progress is behind the pace set in the previous year, when 39% of the planned area had been sown by the same date. The rate of crop emergence is also slightly slower than the prior year's progress. NASS reported that 13% of the winter wheat crop had emerged nationwide as of September 28, compared to 14% at the same point in 2024. This data indicates a moderately slower start to the establishment of the new winter wheat crop across the US when compared to the previous season's timeline.

US Wheat Export Pace Accelerates Compared to Previous Year

US wheat exports have demonstrated a robust pace over the last four weeks, outpacing the previous year's performance. For the four-week period ending September 18, 2025, total weekly export shipments amounted to 2.92 mmt. This is a significant increase from the 2.47 mmt shipped during the same four-week timeframe in 2024, signaling stronger recent demand. This accelerated weekly activity contributes to a healthier overall export picture for the current marketing year. The cumulative wheat exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (starting June 1) have reached 8.52 mmt. This figure is substantially ahead of the 7.35 mmt that had been exported by the same point in the 2024/25 marketing year. Both the recent and season-to-date data indicate a stronger pull for US wheat on the global market compared to the previous season.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (W39 2024 to W39 2025) 

Russia

In Russia, the price of wheat was USD 0.23/kg in W39, stable week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM), but up 4.55% YoY. The price stability reflects a market caught between opposing pressures. Bearish sentiment is being driven by a significant slowdown in the seasonal export pace and a recent downward revision of the total export forecast due to sluggish global demand. However, this downward pressure is being effectively countered by domestic factors that support prices, including government export tariffs and a potentially slower pace of farmer selling. The stable WoW and MoM prices indicate that these forces are currently in equilibrium. The positive YoY figure suggests that global price floors remain elevated compared to the same period in 2024, keeping prices fundamentally higher despite the recent slowdown in shipments.

United States

In the US, the price of wheat was USD 0.24/kg in W39, up 4.35% WoW, stable MoM, and down 4.00% YoY. The strong WoW price increase is a direct reflection of robust export performance. Recent data shows that both weekly and marketing-year-to-date shipments are significantly outpacing the previous year, signaling strong international demand for US supply which is tightening the domestic balance sheet and lifting prices. The stable MoM figure indicates this is a recent rally following a period of flatter pricing. In contrast, the negative YoY price is a result of the broader global supply context. The prospect of large harvests from competitors, particularly Australia, is capping the potential for further price gains and keeping current values below the levels seen at the same time last year.

Ukraine

In Ukraine, the price of wheat was USD 0.24/kg in W39, increasing 4.35% WoW, remaining stable MoM, and rising 4.35% YoY. The sharp WoW increase suggests that Ukrainian wheat is benefiting from a broader firming in global prices, mirroring a similar rise in the US market. This may be driven by a short-term increase in demand from importers seeking supply from the Black Sea region, especially given the documented slowdown in Russian exports. However, Ukrainian wheat exports also lag behind last season, suggesting lower export volumes flowing through Black Sea ports, helping to support Ukrainian prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Monitor Southern Hemisphere Weather and Position for Increased Global Competition

Traders and analysts should pivot their primary focus towards the developing Southern Hemisphere crop, as the near-record Australian harvest is the next major catalyst for global price direction. The confirmation of a 34-35 mmt Australian crop will solidify a bearish global supply outlook and intensify export competition through the first half of 2026. Market participants should closely monitor Australian weather and harvest progress. Any unforeseen disruption presents a potential short-term buying opportunity, while a smooth harvest will likely trigger the next leg down in prices. While the current strength in US exports and quality issues in Canada offer short-term volatility, the medium-term outlook is dominated by this incoming supply. Strategic positioning should therefore anticipate sustained downward pressure on global benchmarks once the Australian harvest is secured and begins actively competing for market share.

Sources: Tridge, USDA, Reuters, SovEcon, Fastmarkets, The Western Producer, Hellenic Shipping News