W11 Sunflower Update: India's Sunflower Oil Imports Surged 35% MoM in Feb-24, Ukraine Revises Sunflower Export Forecast Downward for 2023/24 MY

Published 2024년 3월 21일

In W11 in the sunflower oil landscape, in its Mar-24 report, the USDA revised Ukraine's sunflower export forecast downward to 400 thousand mt for the 2023/24 MY, citing increased domestic processing. However, sunflower oil and meal production estimates were adjusted upward, with exports of sunflower oil raised to 5.75 mmt. The UZA forecasts a decline in grain and oil crop harvests in 2024 due to reduced sown areas, with sunflower cultivation remaining stable at around 5.8 million ha. Conversely, Turkish farmers expect a reduction in sunflower planting areas in the 2024/25 MY, while Argentina's sunflower seed processing surged, although its sunflower harvest is forecasted to decrease. Meanwhile, India saw a decline in vegetable oil imports in Feb-24 but experienced a significant increase in sunflower oil imports due to lower prices and disruptions in palm oil supplies.

USDA Reduced Ukraine's Sunflower Export Estimates for 2023/24 MY

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised its forecasts for sunflower exports from Ukraine in the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) in its Mar-24 report. The updated projections indicate sunflower supplies to foreign markets to reach 400 thousand metric tons (mt), down by 100 thousand mt from the Jan-24 estimate, primarily due to increased domestic processing. Nevertheless, sunflower oil and meal production estimates have been revised upward, with sunflower oil production expected to increase by 42 thousand mt to 6.1 million metric tons (mmt) and sunflower meal production by 40 thousand mt to 5.865 mmt. Furthermore, the USDA has raised its projection for sunflower oil exports by 50 thousand mt to 5.75 mmt.

UZA Forecasts Decrease in Grain and Oil Crop Harvest for 2024

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) forecasts a decrease in the harvest of grain and oil crops in 2024, estimating a yield of 76.1 mmt compared to 82.6 mmt in 2023. This decline is primarily due to a drop in sown areas, driven by unfavorable price conditions and expensive export logistics. The projected harvest includes 13.7 mmt of sunflower.

Ukraine's Sunflower Planting Area Expected to Hold Steady in 2024

Ukraine's sunflower cultivation area is expected to remain relatively stable in 2024, totaling approximately 5.8 million hectares (ha), nearly matching the levels seen in 2023. Analysts reached this conclusion after surveying farmers engaged in sunflower cultivation, with 87% of respondents indicating plans to maintain current acreages. Any changes in planting areas are likely to occur at the expense of rapeseed cultivation. With favorable weather conditions, the sunflower harvest is projected to reach around 13.9 mmt, a slight increase compared to 2023 but still below pre-war levels. However, the area sown under rapeseed in 2024 may decrease due to a dry autumn, leading some farmers to abandon winter oilseed planting.

Turkish Sunflower Planting Expected to Decrease in 2024/25 MY

According to USDA, Turkish farmers project to reduce the planted areas under sunflowers in 2024/25 MY from 750 thousand ha in the previous season to 690 thousand ha. This reduction is attributed to declining profitability in sunflower production, prompting farmers to opt for other crops in their rotation in pursuit of higher profits. The sunflower planting campaign is expected to commence from late Mar-24 to May-24. Despite a drop in planted area, the USDA anticipates an increase in the sunflower harvest from 1.55 mmt in the previous season to 1.675 mmt for 2024/25. This growth is due to improved yields following a year of significantly reduced yields due to drought.

Argentina's Sunflower Seed Processing Peaked in Jan-24

Argentina's sunflower seed processing surged to its highest level in the last five months, totaling 218 thousand mt in Jan-24. Moreover, the USDA forecasts a sunflower harvest of 4.1 mmt in Argentina for the 2023/24 MY, compared to 5.019 mmt in the previous season. Sunflower seed processing is expected to reach 3.85 mmt, slightly lower than the 4 mmt processed last season.

India's Vegetable Oil Imports Plummet to 2-Year Low in Feb-24, Sunflower Oil Surged

India experienced a notable decline in vegetable oil imports in Feb-24, reaching their lowest level in nearly two years at 970 thousand mt. Despite this, sunflower oil imports surged by 35% month-over-month (MoM) to 297.10 thousand mt. This increase was due to lower prices resulting from delayed supplies expected in Jan-24, caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea affecting commercial vessels. The decline in overall vegetable oil imports was primarily due to reduced palm oil supplies, which dropped to their lowest level in nine months. Rising prices prompted consumers to cut purchases, favoring sunflower oil instead.