W18: Canola & Rapeseed Update

In W18 in the canola landscape, oilseed prices rose on international stock markets due to the agreements with Russia on humanitarian corridors in the Black Sea, enabling the export of seeds and vegetable oils from Ukraine. On Friday, May 5, the price of rapeseed under contract for delivery in August increased 2.4% on the Paris Stock Exchange and reached USD 491.81/MT, a gain of 2.3% WoW. The USDA projected in March 2023 that the current 2022/2023 season's global rapeseed crop might total 86.3 MMT, up 16.6% over the previous season's 74 MMT. According to projections, the EU is predicted to produce between 19.5 and 20 MMT of rapeseed, which will be more than the 19.4 MMT obtained in 2022. Production of German rapeseed is projected to increase by 232K MT from 2022 to 4.5 MMT in 2023. France, which for the time being leads the top EU rapeseed producers, is expected to have about 4.6 MMT of rapeseed harvested from the fields in 2023. According to statistics provided by the European Commission, Ukraine will be a significant supplier of the principal oilseeds and their derivatives to the EU in MY 2022/23. In particular, Ukraine has been the top supplier of rapeseed to the EU for 43 weeks of the current season (as of April 23, 2023). Until June 5, imports of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds were prohibited by the European Commission to reduce oversupplies of these crops in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. In W18, the European Commission reached an agreement that will allow the transit of Ukrainian grains such as wheat, maize, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The deal also includes a support package worth USD 110.25M for farmers affected.

Farmers in Khuzestan, Iran, have been collecting rapeseed for the past 10 days from the 26K hectares of rapeseed fields in the province, and 45K MT of rapeseed oil seeds are expected to be harvested this year. In 2022, farms in Sweden harvested 427.5K MT of rapeseed, which was 24% more than in 2021. Rapeseed prices in Ukraine are rising again on the oil market for the first time in a long time, reaching USD 386.93/MT in W18. Lastly, the anticipated harvest of rapeseed in Bulgaria for 2023 is 382K MT. From April 24 until June 30, Bulgaria imposed an import embargo on Ukrainian rapeseed. However, the country's rapeseed industry won't be impacted by the import ban in the 2022/23 growing season.