1. Weekly News

Italy

Italy's Olive Oil Production Crisis Deepens with 25% Drop in 2024/25

Italy's 2024/25 olive oil season has concluded with a production of approximately 248,000 metric tons (mt), a 25% decrease from the previous year. This continues a worrying long-term structural decline for the country. Average annual output has collapsed to under 260,000 mt over the last ten years, down from over 430,000 in the previous decade and over 600,000 mt two decades ago. The crisis is most severe in the southern regions of Puglia, Calabria, and Sicily, primarily attributed to the escalating impacts of climate change, including severe drought and heatwaves, and pathogens like Xylella fastidiosa. This critical scarcity has created a massive price disparity in the market. With Italian extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) trading at around USD 11.41/kg (EUR 10/kg) in Bari, it is nearly triple the price of its Spanish equivalent. The high prices are now directly affecting domestic consumption, with retail sales of 100% Italian EVOO dropping by 25% as consumers opt for cheaper imported alternatives.

Gruppo Olitalia Defies Italian Production Woes with 10% Growth

Despite Italy's challenging harvest, Italian oil producer Gruppo Olitalia has reported significant growth, with revenues rising 10.5% to over USD 355 million (EUR 311 million) in 2024. This growth was driven by increased olive oil prices, higher product volumes, a diversified export strategy, new-product development, and expanded distribution channels. Despite a 25% decrease in national olive oil output, Olitalia experienced growth in both its domestic retail channel and internationally, with exports representing 40% of its turnover, particularly in Asia and the United States (US). Looking ahead, Olitalia is investing around USD 34 million (EUR 30 million) in 2025 in its Forlì plant, as it aims to increase oil production capacity by 20% and improve logistics and energy supply. This major investment signals a clear strategy to increase its international market share by leveraging its industrial capacity, even as the broader Italian agricultural sector faces significant headwinds.

Portugal

Portugal Achieves Second-Highest Olive Oil Production on Record

According to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), Portugal's olive oil sector achieved a historic milestone in 2024, recording its second-highest production volume ever at 180,000 mt. This significant output is largely attributed to the maturation of modern, intensive olive groves, particularly in the key producing region of Alentejo. The successful harvest underscores the positive impact of modernization and strategic investment within the Portuguese olive oil industry. This strong performance reaffirms Portugal’s position as a major player in the European market, especially as it continues to pursue its ambition of becoming the world's second-largest producer. The bumper crop provides a solid supply base for both domestic consumption and the country's growing export markets.

Spain

Spain's Olive Oil Sector Braces for US Tariff Impact

Spain's minister of Economy has warned that the nation's olive oil sector, with over USD 1.14 billion (EUR 1 billion) in annual exports to the US, is highly vulnerable to threatened US tariffs. With a potential 15% tariff looming and a 30% tariff threatened if no deal is reached by August 1st, the industry is reacting to the significant uncertainty. In response, Spanish exporters are front-loading shipments to the US, leading to a 38% surge in export volume from Andalusia in the first five months of 2025, reaching 366,000 mt. However, this rush to market comes at a cost. Due to declining prices at origin, the value of these exports has actually fallen by 9%. The situation is also accelerating market diversification, evidenced by a dramatic 89% increase in olive oil exports to China from the Port of Algeciras.

World's Largest Olive Oil Producer Warns of Double Blow for US Consumers from Tariffs

Spain’s Deoleo, the world's largest olive oil producer, has issued a stark warning that US tariffs on European Union (EU) goods could deliver a double blow of higher prices and limited availability for American consumers. With the US importing approximately 95% of the olive oil it consumes, any tariff increase - potentially from 10% to 30% by August 1 - will directly impact shelf prices for popular brands like Bertolli and Carbonell. Deoleo's CEO emphasized that penalizing access to a healthy staple is counterproductive. A strategically vital market for the company, the US has minimal domestic production, with only around 16,000 hectares (ha) dedicated to olive cultivation compared to around 4 million ha in the EU. In response to the uncertainty, Deoleo is ramping up its US marketing efforts and exploring supply chain adjustments to protect consumer access.

Tunisia

Organic Olive Oil Remains a Cornerstone of Tunisian Exports

According to the National Observatory of Agriculture (ONAGRI), Tunisia exported 45,000 mt of organic olive oil in the first half of 2025, generating approximately USD 215 million (TND 620.8 million). During this period, the average export price stood at USD 8.19/kg (TND 23.59/kg). Organic olive oil exports accounted for 86.8% of all Tunisian organic agriculture exports during the first half of 2025. This performance means that the organic sector now accounts for roughly 20% of Tunisia's total olive oil exports in both volume and value. The data also reveals a heavy reliance on bulk shipments, with only 6% of the organic oil being exported in bottles. This provides a major opportunity in the Tunisian olive oil sector for domestic bottling and packaging of olive oil. Italy remains the dominant destination, accounting for 52.7% of the total volume shipped, followed by strong demand from the US (28.9%) and Spain (28.6%), underscoring the product's importance in key international markets.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important  Exporters (W30 2024 to W30 2025)

Italy

In Italy, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 10.87/kg in W30, an increase of 1.07% week-on-week (WoW). The price is down slightly by 0.78% month-on-month (MoM) but remains 8.09% higher year-on-year (YoY). The Italian olive oil market continues to command a significant premium, with short-term prices firming up again after a brief dip. The slight WoW increase reflects renewed buying interest from Italian packers who are sourcing from a very tight end-of-season supply, both domestically and across the Mediterranean.

However, the marginal MoM decrease suggests the market has stabilized at these high levels, having already priced in the strategy of importing large volumes of Spanish and to a lesser extent Greek oil to offset domestic scarcity. The dominant market driver remains the structural domestic supply deficit, evidenced by the 8.09% YoY price increase. This is a direct consequence of Italy's poor 2024/25 harvest, which saw production fall by 25% and stocks of authentic Italian EVOO plummet. This fundamental scarcity continues to support the high price premium for Italian-origin oil.

Portugal

In Portugal, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 8.98/kg in W30, an increase of 1.07% WoW. The price is down slightly by 0.25% MoM and down a significant 20.36% YoY. The Portuguese olive oil market is showing end-of-season firmness, with prices rising slightly as the last available volumes are traded. The 1.07% WoW increase reflects a tight market where stocks are now minimal and committed.

The market is essentially stable on a monthly basis, indicating it has found an equilibrium in the quiet summer period with minimal trading activity. However, the dominant long-term trend remains the 20.36% YoY price drop. This is a direct result of the successful 2024/25 harvest, where a strong rebound in Portuguese and wider European production ended the scarcity-driven high prices of the previous year.

Greece

In Greece, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.23/kg in W30, an increase of 1.07% WoW. The price is down slightly by 0.25% MoM and down a significant 56.28% YoY. The Greek olive oil market is showing signs of firming up at the end of the season, even as prices remain dramatically lower than last year. The slight WoW increase is driven by a tightening supply of available oil compounded by quality concerns driven by high summer temperatures and limited storage capacity.

The market is essentially stable on a monthly basis, reflecting a standoff where producers are holding back stock in hopes of better prices, preventing further declines. However, the 56.28% YoY price collapse remains the dominant long-term trend. This is a direct consequence of the strong production rebound in both Greece and Spain during the 2024/25 season, which ended the severe scarcity and record-high prices of the previous year.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.62/kg in W30, an increase of 1.07% WoW. The price is also up 1.04% MoM, but remains 44.33% lower YoY. The Tunisian olive oil market continues to firm up as the season concludes, driven almost entirely by scarcity. The steady weekly and monthly price increases are a direct result of domestic stocks nearing depletion. With very little oil left to trade, and quality concerns rising due to the summer heat, buyers are competing for the last available volumes, pushing prices higher.

However, the 44.33% YoY price collapse remains the dominant long-term trend. This reflects the significant market correction following the excellent 2024/25 harvest, which ended the supply crisis and record-high prices of the previous year. The new US tariffs add a layer of future uncertainty, but the current price movements are dictated by the immediate end-of-season supply squeeze.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Navigate Tariff Uncertainty with Strategic Sourcing and Shipping

The current trade environment demands immediate and strategic action to mitigate the impact of potential US tariffs. European exporters should continue the strategy of front-loading shipments to the US to get as much product into the country as possible under the current, lower tariff regime before the August 1 deadline. For US importers, this is a critical window to build inventory. Furthermore, importers should diversify their sourcing portfolio to reduce dependence on a single European country. With high-quality Spanish EVOO becoming scarce and Italian prices at a massive premium, securing volumes from Greece and Portugal is a prudent move to ensure a consistent supply of high-quality oil. This dual strategy of accelerating current shipments while diversifying future sourcing will be essential for navigating the uncertainty and maintaining market stability.

Invest in Value-Added Bottling for Organic Exports

The data clearly shows that while Tunisia's organic olive oil sector is a major success, it is leaving significant value on the table by exporting 94% of this high-demand product in bulk. To capture a greater share of the profit margin, Tunisian cooperatives and exporters should strategically invest in domestic bottling and branding infrastructure. By developing "Made in Tunisia" organic brands, they can transition from being a bulk raw material supplier for Italian and Spanish companies to a direct competitor in high-value consumer markets like the US. This move up the value chain would create more skilled jobs, build national brand equity, and ensure that a larger portion of the revenue from this premium product remains within the Tunisian economy, making the sector more resilient and profitable.

Leverage Industrial Strength to Navigate Supply Shortage

The success of Gruppo Olitalia, which grew 10.5% YoY despite a 25% YoY national production decline, provides a clear roadmap for the Italian sector. While the agricultural base is in crisis, Italy's strength lies in its industrial capacity, branding, and global distribution networks. Processors should follow Olitalia's lead by investing heavily in production efficiency and logistics to adeptly manage and process imported bulk oil from Spain and Greece. This allows them to maintain finished product volumes, satisfy international demand, and protect market share. By focusing on their industrial and commercial prowess, Italian companies can navigate the domestic supply shortage, continue to grow their export footprint, and maintain their central role in the global high-quality olive oil market, even when relying on foreign raw materials.

Sources: Tridge, Olive Oil Times, ESM, The Portugal News, CNBC, Trend n Africa