In W32 in the tuna landscape, the global tuna fish market is expected to grow from USD 32.98 billion in 2022 to USD 34.23 billion in 2023 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8%. The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted the economic recovery post COVID-19, causing economic sanctions, increased commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions. The market is expected to reach USD 38.46 billion in 2027 at a CAGR of 3.0%. Meanwhile, the Latin American tuna market has experienced significant growth, with an average volume of 524 thousand tons in 2021. The market is expected to reach a CAGR of 4.84% between 2023 and 2028, driven by evolving consumption patterns and increasing demand.
The Netherlands' tuna export price reached its highest point in 2022 at USD 4.10/kg. It is expected to continue increasing in the next two years, reaching USD 4.40 in 2023 and USD 4.70 in 2024. The retail price range for Dutch tuna in Aug-23 is between USD 3.99/kg and USD 8.99/kg. Meanwhile, the retail price for tuna in the United Kingdom (UK) is expected to be between USD 4-12/kg in Aug-23. The wholesale price range for UK tuna in 2023 is projected to be between USD 2.8-8.4/kg.
Vietnam's tuna exports to Italy increased by 37% in the first six months of 2023, reaching USD 5.8 million. Italy imports the most canned tuna from Vietnam, accounting for over 50% of the export value. Canned tuna’s export value to Italy increased five times compared to the same period in 2022. Vietnam's export of frozen tuna meat/loin code HS0304 also saw a sharp 71% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This growth is supported by Vietnam Customs statistics and the Association for Seafood Exporters and Processing (VASEP)'s findings.
Furthermore, the tariff incentives established within the European Union -Vietnam Free Trade Agreement will attract Italian importers to purchase Vietnamese tuna goods. However, after the tariff-preferred quota is used up, the rate of exports to Italy may slow down. The results of the European Union's (EU) anti-illegal, undeclared, and unregulated (IUU) program inspection are another potential cause. Vietnam's "yellow cards" may influence tuna exports to EU countries, particularly Italy, if they are not resolved.
Madagascar and the EU signed a new Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement (SFPA) in late Jun-23, claiming it benefits Madagascar by providing funding for fisheries governance. However, critics argue that the deal benefits only private interests, such as fishing companies, and contributes to the overexploitation of the three main commercial tuna species in the Indian Ocean.