1. Weekly News

Italy

Italian Olive Oil Stocks See Dramatic Geographic Shift Amidst Scarcity

The scarcity of domestic olive oil is reshaping the geography of Italy's supply chain, with new data revealing a dramatic shift in stock locations as of July 31st. Reserves of authentic Italian extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) have plummeted to just 45,200 metric tons (mt), down 12,000 mt from the previous month. Meanwhile, stocks of foreign EVOO have swelled to nearly 69,000 mt. The picture is completed by another 47,000 mt of minor categories, including virgin, lampante, and pomace, for a total supply of 162,160 mt, 8% less than last year. This heavy reliance on imports means that industrial bottling centers now hold more oil than traditional production heartlands. In a stark illustration of this trend, Tuscany (26,621 mt) now holds more extra virgin olive oil than Puglia, while Umbria (18,234 mt) has more than Calabria, Sicily, and Campania combined. At the provincial level, Perugia (17,179 mt) outclasses Bari (11,426 mt), which is now closely followed by Siena (10,207 mt) in total volume. This highlights the profound impact of the poor 2024/25 harvest, forcing the industry to depend on foreign supply to maintain operations.

Italy’s 2024/25 Olive Oil Crisis with Deficit and Heavy Imports

Italy produces only 28% of the extra virgin olive oil required for domestic consumption and export purposes, highlighting the production crisis in the 2024/25 season. With annual needs approaching 900,000 mt, 550,000 mt for domestic consumption and 350,000 mt for export, and domestic production struggling at just 240,000 mt, the industry is forced to import large volumes from Spain, Greece, and Tunisia to meet demand. This production deficit is creating a severe market crisis for local producers. Low-priced foreign imports are driving down prices, making it unprofitable for traditional Italian olive groves to compete and leading to an increasing risk of abandonment. Furthermore, protected origin labels (DOP/IGP) have largely failed to command a price premium from domestic consumers, who tend to prioritize price over quality, further squeezing the margins for high-quality Italian producers. Consequently, producers of protected origins are increasingly forced to seek out export markets willing to pay a price premium.

Spain

Spanish Traders Cautiously Optimistic Despite New 15% US Tariff

Spanish olive oil traders are expressing cautious optimism in the face of the new 15% United States (US) tariff, viewing the current situation as more favorable than previous trade disputes. They find comfort in the fact that their main European Union (EU) competitors, Italy and Greece, face the same levy, while key non-EU rival Tunisia is hit with an even higher 25% tariff. Traders remain confident in the resilience of the US market, noting that American consumers have a strong "olive oil culture" and have weathered significant price hikes in the past. With the US producing only 2% of its own needs, they believe demand will hold steady. However, uncertainty remains for the upcoming harvest, as initial forecasts for a record-breaking season are now being dampened by recent drought and soaring temperatures.

Tunisia

Tunisia Deepens China Trade Ties as Global Deficit Widens

As Tunisia's global trade deficit surged by 24% in the first seven months of 2025, the country is increasingly looking to China as a key strategic partner to rebalance its economy. In a significant shift, China has now surpassed traditional European partners Italy and France to become the top source of imports for Tunisia, highlighting a major realignment of the nation's trade relationships away from its historical reliance on Europe. This pivot is a direct response to pressing economic challenges and the need to find new, dynamic growth markets. This growing partnership presents a vital opportunity for Tunisia's agri-food sector, particularly for olive oil, which has seen its export value decline sharply in recent months. With overall olive oil exports falling 31% from USD 597 million to USD 412 million in the first half of 2025, the need for new, high-growth markets is critical. China represents a major opportunity, with the Export Promotion Center (CEPEX) estimating there is USD 214 million in untapped export potential, with olive oil positioned to lead this charge with a market potential of USD 20 million. The recent establishment of a new direct air link between Tunis and Beijing is set to be a major catalyst, boosting not only tourism but also facilitating crucial business travel and trade missions. By strengthening this trade corridor, Tunisia can work to offset its widening deficit and counteract the recent drop in export revenue.

Turkey

Turkey's Historic Harvest Tempered by Economic and Branding Challenges

Turkey has achieved a historic milestone with its 2024/25 olive oil harvest reaching 475,000 mt, positioning it as a top global producer. However, this agricultural success is being hampered by severe domestic economic challenges, including 35% inflation and 50% interest rates, which make it difficult for producers to access credit and invest in modernization. The recent lifting of a 14-month ban on bulk exports has allowed Turkish oil, priced competitively around USD 4.64 per kilogram (EUR 4/kg), to re-enter international markets and compete with Spain and Greece. Despite producing high-quality oil, the sector's primary challenge remains a lack of strong branding and storytelling. Industry leaders note that without investment in DOP/IGP and effective marketing, it is difficult to translate this production excellence into higher economic value on the global stage.

New Zealand

New Zealand's 2025 Harvest Delivers Larger Crop Despite Weather Challenges and Lower Yields

New Zealand's 2025 olive harvest is shaping up to be a promising one, with a significant increase in overall fruit volume compared to the last few years. However, the season has been marked by regional challenges and difficult weather conditions. The northern regions were particularly affected by heavy rain and wind just before the harvest, leading to fruit loss. A widespread issue across the country is that the wet autumn has resulted in lower oil yields, despite abundant fruit on the trees. Despite these challenges, many producers, especially in regions like Wairarapa and Hawke’s Bay, are still reporting a strong season with excellent quality oil. The overall outlook is positive, balancing the much larger crop against slightly lower oil extraction rates.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W33 2024 to W33 2025)

Italy

In Italy, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 10.65/kg in W33, an increase of 0.47% week-on-week (WoW). The price is down 2.02% month-on-month (MoM) but remains up a significant 4.41% year-on-year (YoY). The Italian olive oil market is showing signs of firming up after a period of slight decline, with the WoW price increase reflecting the deep-seated supply scarcity. With domestic stocks of Italian EVOO critically low, any renewed buying interest from packers immediately puts upward pressure on the limited available volumes. The MoM decrease, however, indicates that the market has found a high-level equilibrium, stabilized by the industry's reliance on a steady flow of imports from Spain and Greece, which has prevented further significant price spikes during the summer slowdown. The long-term trend remains the 4.41% YoY price increase. This is a direct consequence of Italy's severe 2024/25 production crisis, which saw the harvest fall by 25%. This fundamental supply deficit is the primary driver supporting the sustained price premium for Italian-origin oil.

Greece

In Greece, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.45/kg in W33, an increase of 0.45% WoW. This contributes to a strong 5.20% MoM rise, though the price remains down a significant 50.28% YoY. The Greek olive oil market has seen a significant short-term price rally, breaking its recent stability. The strong WoW and MoM increases are driven by a classic end-of-season supply squeeze, as dwindling inventories of high-quality oil are met with renewed buyer interest, particularly from Italian packers looking to cover their domestic shortfalls. This demand is intensified by mounting pressure on Greek producers to sell their remaining stocks before high summer temperatures degrade the quality, forcing the last available volumes onto the market at a premium. However, the massive 50.28% YoY price collapse remains the dominant long-term trend. This is a direct consequence of the strong production rebound in both Greece and, more significantly, Spain during the 2024/25 season, which ended the severe scarcity and record-high prices of the previous year.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.66/kg in W33, an increase of 0.43% WoW. This contributes to a 0.87% MoM rise, but the price remains down a significant 41.53% YoY. The Tunisian olive oil market continues to firm up as the season concludes, driven almost entirely by scarcity. The steady WoW and MoM price increases are a direct result of domestic stocks being nearly depleted. With very little oil left to trade and quality concerns rising due to the summer heat, buyers are competing for the last available volumes, pushing prices higher. However, the massive 41.53% YoY price collapse remains the prevailing long-term trend. This reflects the significant market correction following the excellent 2024/25 harvest, which ended the supply crisis and record-high prices of the previous year.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Focus on Premiumization to Capture Higher Value and Build Brand Resilience

In a market saturated with competitively priced bulk oil from high-production countries like Spain and Turkey, competing on price is an unsustainable strategy. Producers and exporters must shift their focus from volume to value by investing heavily in premiumization. This means moving beyond the technical quality of the oil and building a compelling brand narrative through investment in marketing, storytelling, and internationally recognized certifications like Protected Designation of Origin (PDO/PGI) and organic labels. The substantial price premium that Italian EVOO commands over Spanish oil in export markets proves that a well-established reputation for quality can translate directly into higher margins. By creating a distinct, high-value brand identity, producers can cultivate brand loyalty, insulate their business from the volatility of commodity pricing, and capture the full economic potential of their high-quality production, avoiding the challenges currently faced by producers in Turkey. This is especially true for markets such as the US, where prices are certain to rise with recently imposed tariffs on imported olive oil.

Adopt Value-Based Category Management to Navigate Shifting Consumer Behavior

The data reveals a clear divergence in the market. For example, Italian EVOO commands a significant premium compared to Spanish oil, yet domestic Italian consumers are increasingly opting for cheaper imported alternatives. Industry players, especially bottlers and retailers, must adopt a value-based category management strategy. This involves offering a tiered product range: a competitively priced entry-level EVOO (likely sourced from Spain, Greece, or Turkey) to capture the price-sensitive consumer segment, and a distinct premium tier for authentic, origin-certified products targeting discerning buyers in export markets. As Italian producers of protected origin oils are finding, the real value lies in export markets willing to pay for quality, such as the US. Therefore, importers and distributors should focus marketing efforts for premium Italian, Greek, or Spanish PDO/PGI oils on international channels, while leveraging competitively priced bulk oil from producers like Turkey to meet domestic demand for affordability.

Act Decisively to Secure Final High-Quality Inventories Before the Next Harvest

The window of opportunity for securing high-quality extra virgin olive oil from the 2024/25 season is closing rapidly. A combination of depleted end-of-season stocks across Greece and Tunisia, and the imminent threat of quality degradation from summer heat, creates an urgent call to action for bottlers and suppliers. Waiting for prices to soften is no longer a viable strategy. The risk of the last remaining high-quality volumes being sold to competitors or becoming damaged by heat is too high. Italian packers, in particular, must act decisively to secure supplies from Greece and Spain to bridge their domestic production gap. Securing these final volumes now is the only way to guarantee the continuity of premium product lines and meet consumer demand in the critical months leading up to the new harvest in October. Failure to do so will inevitably lead to supply chain disruptions and missed revenue opportunities.

Sources: Tridge, Olivo News, Euractiv, Cinelli Colombini, MSN, Travel News Africa