1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil's Soybean Area Growth to Hit Five-Year Low in 2025/26

For the 2025/26 season, Brazil is expected to see the slowest expansion of its soybean cultivation area in five years, with a projected increase of just 2% to 48.7 million hectares (ha), according to consultancy firm AgResource Brasil. Despite the reduced growth pace, the country's soybean production is forecast to rise by 3% to 176.53 million metric tons (mmt).

The outlook for corn is similar, with a modest 0.7% increase in production to 138.44 mmt. In contrast, Argentina is projected to experience a more significant growth. Its soybean production is estimated to reach 53.6 mmt with a 5% area increase. At the same time, its corn output is expected to jump by 10%, reaching 54.13 mmt, driven by an 11% expansion in planted area.

Sustainable Farming System Boosts Livestock Productivity and Cuts Emissions

The Antecipasto system, a crop-livestock integration technique developed by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), is delivering significant gains in productivity and sustainability in Brazil's Cerrado biome. While the method is adaptable for use with several grain crops, such as corn, its benefits are particularly well-documented in soybean cultivation. By sowing pasture grass about 20 days after planting soybeans, the system establishes grazing land up to 60 days earlier than conventional methods. This ensures high-quality forage is available for cattle immediately after the soybean harvest, even during dry periods.

The results are impressive, with farms reporting up to a 50% increase in meat production per hectare. Animals gain weight faster, reducing the average age of slaughter and, consequently, lowering methane emissions. The system also improves pasture resilience to climate variations and aids in recovering degraded lands. As part of Embrapa's Journey for the Climate initiative, Antecipasto is highlighted as a key technology for advancing low-carbon agriculture ahead of COP30.

Brazil Captures US Soy Market Share Amid Rising Prices

Soybean prices in Brazil have recovered, driven by gains on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and a stronger dollar, which has spurred market activity. Brazilian producers are capitalizing on this momentum, though many remain cautious, anticipating even better prices ahead.

A key factor in the market's strength is Brazil's growing competitive advantage over the United States (US), particularly in exports to China. In Jul-25, Chinese imports of Brazilian soy surged by 13.9% year-on-year (YoY), while purchases from the US declined. This shift is intensifying financial pressure on American farmers, who are urging for a trade agreement with China to secure future sales. As China continues to favor Brazilian soybeans, the trend suggests a significant realignment of global market share, benefiting Brazilian producers at the expense of their American counterparts.

Inoculants Boost Soybean Yields by up to Five Bags per HA

The use of inoculants is a key technology for enhancing soybean productivity, capable of increasing yields by up to 9%, which translates to an extra two to five bags per ha. This is achieved through Biological Nitrogen Fixation (BNF), where bacteria, primarily of the Bradyrhizobium genus, form nodules on the plant's roots. These nodules convert atmospheric nitrogen into a form the plant can use, significantly reducing or even eliminating the need for nitrogen fertilizers.

This practice not only reduces production costs and minimizes environmental impact but also enhances overall plant health. Advanced techniques such as coinoculation, which combines Bradyrhizobium with other beneficial microorganisms like Azospirillum brasilense, can further enhance root growth and increase productivity by up to 16%. By ensuring a continuous nitrogen supply and improving nutrient absorption, inoculants are a strategic tool for sustainable and profitable soybean farming.

China

AI-Powered Robotic Breeder Revolutionizes Crop Pollination

Researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences have developed GEAIR, a groundbreaking system that automates hybrid crop breeding by combining artificial intelligence (AI)--powered robotics and genetic engineering. To overcome the slow and costly bottleneck of manual pollination, scientists used CRISPR, a powerful gene-editing tool that enables precise modifications to an organism's DNA, to redesign crop flowers, creating male-sterile plants with prominent, exposed stigmas. This created male-sterile plants with prominent, exposed stigmas, a crop-robot co-design that makes the flowers easily accessible for a bespoke robot.

Guided by AI and computer vision, the GEAIR robot identifies and precisely pollinates these engineered flowers. While its pollination speed matches that of a skilled human technician, its key advantage is the ability to operate continuously, 24/7, without fatigue s. This innovation dramatically accelerates the creation of high-yielding, climate-resilient crops by eliminating labor-intensive steps and integrating seamlessly with speed breeding techniques. The system has been successfully applied to both tomatoes and soybeans, heralding a new era of agricultural automation.

Germany

Germany Adapts to Drought with Soybeans and Efficient Irrigation

German farmers are increasingly adapting to drought conditions by shifting to more resilient crops and adopting efficient water management techniques. The cultivation area for soybeans, a drought-resistant crop, has surged by 156.8% between 2016 and 2024, now covering 40,500 ha. This reflects a strategic move to mitigate the impacts of drier weather.

In addition to crop diversification, there is a growing reliance on irrigation. The total potentially irrigated agricultural land increased by nearly 24% from 2009 to 2022. More significantly, farmers are embracing sustainable practices, with the number of farms using efficient drip irrigation systems rising by 78.1% in the same period. This dual approach of planting hardier crops and optimizing water use underscores a significant shift towards climate-resilient agriculture in Germany.

India

India's Record Soybean Production Insufficient to Meet Domestic Demand

Despite achieving a record soybean output of 15.18 mmt in 2024/25 season, India's domestic production is failing to meet the country's rising demand. Recently raised in the Indian Parliament, the issue is especially critical in the edible oil sector, where India imports nearly 55% of its total requirements.

While soybean production has increased by over 46% in the last decade, consumption has outpaced this growth. To address the shortfall, the Indian government has allocated significant funds under the National Mission on Edible Oils – Oilseeds, to boost oilseed production from 42.6 mmt to nearly 70 mmt by 2030/31. Discussions about potential imports from the US are ongoing, but the government maintains that protecting farmers' interests and ensuring national food security remain top priorities.

Ukraine

Ukraine Seeks to Enter Chinese Market for Soybean Meal

The State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection (SSUFSCP) is actively working to secure access to the Chinese market for its soybean meal. The agency has submitted a formal questionnaire to Chinese authorities to begin the approval process for exports. This initiative was discussed during a meeting with the European Business Association (EBA).

In addition to soybean meal, officials noted that the requirements for exporting Ukrainian edible oils to China have already been established. The government is also focused on modernizing trade by implementing digital tools, including the European TRACES NT system, the EU's official online platform for the digital certification and tracking of agri-food products, for faster data exchange and a new exporter's office service to streamline the electronic processing of phytosanitary documents. These measures aim to reduce bureaucratic barriers for Ukrainian businesses seeking to expand their international reach.

United States

US Soybean Farmers Face Financial Crisis

The US-China trade war is severely impacting American soybean farmers. In response to US tariffs, China has imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on US soybeans, causing exports to their largest market to collapse. This has led to a sharp decline in soybean prices, pushing many farmers into financial distress as they face selling their crops at a loss.

While the US government has introduced a substantial aid package, farmers view it as a temporary measure and strongly prefer a return to stable trade. Many are now storing their harvest, hoping for a political resolution. Still, they face rising storage costs and the long-term risk of permanently losing market share to competitors like Brazil.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (W34 2024 to W34 2025)

Brazil

This sustained demand from the world's largest importer has created a highly competitive export market, leading to a notable increase in port premiums. These premiums, which are the extra costs paid for immediate loading and shipment, directly translate into higher prices paid to farmers. Furthermore, the domestic market is providing an additional layer of robust support. The growing demand for biodiesel within Brazil is boosting the consumption of soybean oil, creating competition between domestic processors and international exporters for the available soybean supply. Looking ahead, favorable weather forecasts, with the anticipated arrival of La Niña in November, are expected to benefit the upcoming planting season, which may temper future price hikes.

United States

In W34, US soybean prices reached USD 0.46/kg, marking a 2.22% WoW increase. On the other hand, the soybean prices showed a more notable increase by 6.98% both MoM and YoY. The price increase is supported by a record high in domestic soybean processing in July and strong demand for soybean meal, with production expected to grow. In Jul-25, the US crush rate hit an all-time high reaching approximately 4.71 mmt (173.3 million bushels), indicating that domestic processors are aggressively buying soybeans to convert into soybean meal and oil. This is complemented by forecasts of a 4-5% YoY growth in soybean meal production for the upcoming season, signaling sustained internal demand. This strong domestic consumption, along with lower-than-previously-expected soybean stocks, has provided fundamental support to prices in the Chicago Stock Exchange (CHX).

However, these bullish domestic factors are being held in check by the persistent trade dispute with China. The lack of significant export sales to this crucial market remains a major headwind, with US farmer associations actively urging for a trade pact to be finalized. The market is further complicated by reports of strong yield prospects for the current harvest, which could increase supply and apply downward pressure on prices if export demand does not improve.

Argentina

The recent price strength is closely linked to developments in the international soybean meal trade. Reports have emerged of a major trading house, Bunge, rerouting large shipments of Argentine soybean meal that were initially destined for China. Such logistical rerouting, whether due to shifting demand, trade policy, or other factors, creates significant ripples in the global supply chain. It introduces uncertainty and can tighten the available supply in different regions, forcing buyers to compete more aggressively for the product. This turbulence and strength in the soybean meal market directly support the value of the raw soybeans from which it is derived. As the FOB price reflects the value of the commodity at the point of export, it is susceptible to these international trade flow adjustments and the resulting strength in the global soy complex.

Uruguay

In W34, Uruguayan soybean prices decreased to USD 0.41/kg, a 4.65% drop WoW and MoM. Annually, prices remained unchanged. The price decline in Uruguay, contrasting with the increases in neighboring Brazil and Argentina, can be attributed to localized factors such as the timing of farmer sales and export loading schedules. With a significant portion of the harvest already sold, the remaining supply is subject to more volatile price movements based on immediate logistical needs and buyer interest. The completion of major export programs for the season has likely led to a temporary drop in demand at the port, pressuring prices downward.

Conversely, in Aug-25, the Uruguayan soybean market was influenced by the European Union (EU)-Mercosur trade agreement, which started in Dec-24, finalized in Jan-25, and set for implementation in Aug-25. The impending elimination of tariffs on over 90% of goods will be a direct price driver in the upcoming period, as markets anticipate a surge in demand for Uruguayan soy from the EU. Concurrently, the agreement establishes a powerful, longer-term indirect driver by boosting beef exports. This will steadily increase the demand for soy as animal feed over the coming years as the agreement is fully implemented. Additionally, related environmental pledges to curb the resulting deforestation are not slated to take effect until after 2030, suggesting these price-driving agricultural expansions will face few regulatory hurdles in the near future.

4. Actionable Recommendations

Capitalize on Brazil's Competitive Edge and Sustainable Innovations

Global buyers, particularly those in China, should continue to leverage Brazil's competitive pricing and expanding market share. Securing forward contracts can help lock in supplies as Brazil solidifies its position as a primary exporter. For producers and investors, adopting advanced sustainable practices like the Antecipasto system and the use of inoculants is crucial. These technologies not only boost yields by up to 16% and increase meat production by 50% but also align with the growing global demand for low-carbon agriculture, potentially commanding premium prices ahead of COP30.

Navigate US Trade Challenges by Focusing on Domestic Markets and Diversification

US farmers and exporters should mitigate the impact of the ongoing trade war with China by focusing on the robust domestic market, where record-high crush rates and strong demand for soybean meal are providing price support. Concurrently, accelerating efforts to diversify export destinations is critical to reduce reliance on the Chinese market and hedge against long-term market share loss. Farmer associations should persist in advocating for a trade resolution to restore stability.

Monitor South American Trade Agreements and Logistics

Traders should closely watch Uruguay's market dynamics as the EU-Mercosur trade agreement is implemented. The impending tariff elimination is expected to significantly boost EU demand, making it advantageous to secure supply agreements early. In Argentina, buyers should stay informed about logistical shifts in the soybean meal trade, as rerouting and supply chain adjustments can create short-term price volatility and strategic purchasing opportunities.

Embrace Global Technological and Climate-Resilient Adaptations

 Agribusinesses and farmers globally should invest in and adopt emerging technologies to enhance productivity and sustainability. Innovations like China's GEAIR and Brazil's use of advanced inoculants highlight a clear trend toward agricultural automation and biological solutions. Furthermore, farmers in climate-vulnerable regions should draw lessons from Germany's successful strategy of shifting to drought-resistant crops like soybeans and investing in efficient drip irrigation to build resilience.

Sources: Tridge, Canal Rural, Hellenic Shipping, UkrAgroConsult, Sinor, AgroLink, Agravery, Agro Pages