1. Weekly News

Global

Global Wheat Outlook Tightens as Consumption Outpaces Production in 2025/26

The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2025/26 world wheat production forecast to 811 million metric tons (mmt), 3 mmt higher than the previous outlook. Global wheat consumption is expected to reach 816 mmt, outpacing supply and tightening global stocks. Carry-over inventories are projected at 269 mmt, slightly higher than this season’s 264 mmt, but still pointing to constrained availability.

Despite these fundamentals, global wheat prices remain under pressure, largely due to expectations of a record United States (US) corn harvest, which weighs on feed grain markets and caps wheat’s upside potential. In the US, Chicago wheat futures hit new lows, while in Europe, Euronext milling wheat found some support from export deals but faced competitiveness issues due to a strong euro. Meanwhile, Russia saw higher wheat export prices amid sluggish demand, contributing to volatility in the Black Sea market.

European Union

European Wheat Shipments Plunge as Saudi Arabia Leads Demand

According to the data from the European Commission (EC), European Union (EU) wheat and flour exports totaled 2.16 mmt in the first seven weeks of the 2025/26 season (July 1-August 17), 45% lower than the same period in 2024/25. Specifically, soft wheat fell 53% year-on-year (YoY) to 1.78 mmt while soft wheat flour dropped 11% YoY to 58.78 thousand metric tons (mt). On the other hand, durum wheat rose significantly by 627% YoY to 301.03 thousand mt. The drop reflects weaker demand and heightened global competition. Key destinations for EU soft wheat during this period included Saudi Arabia with 254.5 thousand mt, Nigeria with 128.8 thousand mt, and Jordan with 117.2 thousand mt. The overall slowdown in wheat trade underscores challenges for EU exporters, as total grain exports declined by 34% YoY, with corn and malt also posting sharp decreases.

Middle East

Wheat Supply Pressures Mount Across Middle Eastern Countries

With a population of over 400 million, the Middle East region is highly dependent on wheat imports due to limited production. Egypt, the world’s largest importer, expects a 2025/26 harvest of 9.3 mmt against consumption of 20.4 mmt, requiring imports of about 11 mmt as its population grows from 107 million and expected to reach 124 million by 2030. Despite better procurement of nearly 4 mmt from the domestic market this year, and new investment programs, imports remain essential. Iran’s harvest is projected at 13 mmt, down from 16 mmt, with imports rising between 2.5 mmt and 6 mmt amid drought and low state purchase prices. Meanwhile, Turkey is expected to produce 18.5 mmt, but consumption remains high despite declining per capita demand. Iraq’s output is anticipated to fall to 5 mmt from 6.3 mmt, forcing 2.1 mmt in imports despite 5.5 mmt in reserves. Saudi Arabia’s wheat production is up 25% to 1.5 mmt, though it still imports 3.2 mmt for consumption of 4.6 mmt.

In contrast, Syria faces its worst wheat crisis in decades, with production down 40% YoY due to drought and war, leaving a 2.73 mmt deficit. Annual demand is 2.55 mmt, but only 372 thousand mt were procured domestically, forcing reliance on imports, such as a 200 thousand mt tender, with limited support from Iraq (220 thousand mt) and Ukraine (500 mt of flour). Over half of the 25.6 million population is food insecure, with 3 million at risk of severe hunger. Jordan has issued tenders for up to 120 thousand mt to stabilize supplies.

Across the region, wheat underpins subsidized bread programs and food security. However, dependence on Black Sea exporters like Russia and Ukraine leaves countries vulnerable to drought, inflation, and geopolitical shocks. This makes wheat access a central economic and political priority.

Australia

Strong Wheat Harvest Positions Australia as Key Global Supplier in 2025

Australia’s 2025 wheat harvest is projected to reach around 33 mmt, up from earlier estimates of 30.6 mmt. This upward projection followed favorable Jul-25 rainfall that improved soil moisture across most grain-growing regions. Despite a dry start in areas such as South Australia and parts of Victoria, above-average rainfall forecasts for the coming months support optimism for a crop that could match or surpass last year’s production of 34 mmt. As one of the world’s top wheat exporters, increased Australian output is expected to exert downward pressure on global wheat prices, affecting farmers in other countries.

Meanwhile, Australia exported 2.54 mmt of wheat in Jun-25, including 36.62 thousand mt of durum, slightly down from May-25 but more than double Jun-24 volumes. Key containerized markets included Malaysia, Taiwan, and Thailand, while major bulk destinations were Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Africa, with African buyers such as Kenya, Mozambique, and Algeria also participating. Year-to-date (YTD) exports for the first three quarters of the 2024/25 shipping year totaled 17.58 mmt, reflecting Australia’s strong role in global wheat trade and the ongoing impact of favorable weather conditions on production and international supply.

Russia

Russia’s Wheat Exports Plunge in Aug-25 Due to Port Delays and Harvest Challenges

From August 1 to 20, Russia’s grain exports fell sharply to 2.91 mmt, nearly half the volume from the same period last year, with wheat exports dropping 44.6% YoY to 2.51 mmt. Aug-25 exports are projected at 4.5 mmt, down from 6.8 mmt last year, with wheat accounting for 3.9 mmt, down from 6.1 mmt in Aug-24. Exported wheat reached 27 countries, compared to 60 a year ago, with Egypt, Turkey, and Kenya as the top buyers, while shipments to Algeria fell fivefold. Export activity involved only 27 companies, down from 104 last year. Key ports saw declines in throughput, particularly Kavkaz, where new security regulations and approvals caused severe delays. This left around 120 ships waiting and storage near capacity, though Novorossiysk and Baltic routes remained more stable.

Domestic wheat prices fell slightly, with free-on-board (FOB) Novorossiysk stable at USD 240/mt to USD 241/mt and producer prices decreasing 2.8%, which may support discounted exports. Export duties on wheat, barley, and corn remained at zero, and Russia’s grain damper mechanism continues to adjust duties to subsidize producers. However, logistical bottlenecks and harvest delays have combined to disrupt the country’s export rhythm in the global wheat market.

Ukraine

Tight Supply of High-Quality Wheat Spurs Competition in Ukraine

Ukraine’s wheat production for the 2025/26 marketing year (MY) is expected to reach 21 mmt, including 10.3 mmt of food wheat. This represents a 6% YoY drop in output due to weaker yields despite expanded sowing areas. Within this, only 1.7 mmt of top-quality 1st–2nd class wheat is expected, intensifying competition between processors and exporters, as farmers are holding back sales to influence prices. This raises risks for flour and bakery product availability and affordability. While some regions, such as Ternopil, reported exceptionally high winter wheat yields, overall production reflects challenges from weather conditions and shifting market dynamics. On the trade side, wheat exports have reached 2 mmt as of late Aug-25, 1.5 times lower than last year, underscoring supply tightness and the need to balance domestic food security with export commitments.

United States

US Wheat Production Edges Down as Exports Gain Momentum

According to the USDA’s Aug-25 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, US wheat exports for the 2025/26 MY are projected at 875 million bushels, up 25 million from the previous forecast. This forecast was supported by strong export sales and competitive pricing. Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports are expected to reach 300 million bushels, with total commitments nearly doubling YoY, fueled by demand from markets including Nigeria, Mexico, Venezuela, and Bangladesh. Soft Red Winter (SRW) and durum exports are slightly ahead of last year, while Hard Red Spring (HRS) and White wheat lag behind and are forecast to decline.

US wheat production is projected at 1.93 billion bushels, down 2 million from Jul-25 and 2% below last year, reflecting lower planted and harvested area despite higher yields. Winter wheat production is expected to rise nearly 10 million bushels to 1.36 billion, driven by higher HRW and SRW yields. Other spring wheat are expected to drop 19 million bushels due to reduced HRS area and yields. Durum production climbs to a nine-year high of 87 million bushels.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Wheat Pricing Important Exporters (W34 2024 to W34 2025)

Russia

In W34, Russia’s wheat prices remained stable both week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) at USD 0.24 per kilogram (kg), marking the sixth consecutive week without change. This price stability reflects steady demand, while many farmers withheld sales in anticipation of higher returns as harvesting neared completion, particularly in the southern regions. The restrained selling contributed to a slowdown in wheat exports, which fell 44.6% YoY to 2.51 mmt by August 20. Additional factors behind the significant drop in shipments include port delays caused by new security regulations and approval procedures, especially at the Kavkaz port.

Ukraine

In W34, Ukraine’s wheat prices remained stable WoW and MoM at USD 0.24/kg, reflecting a 4.35% YoY increase. The steady short-term trend indicates a balanced market, while the YoY rise stems from adverse weather that delayed harvesting and reduced grain quality, particularly in western regions. Prolonged rains in Jul-25 and early Aug-25 damaged 20% to 60% of the harvested grain with fungal diseases such as smut, alternaria, and sooty mold. This led to a surge in feed wheat supply and a corresponding drop in its price, while food-grade wheat remained scarce and commanded a strong premium. Substandard wheat is stored separately, and batches with smut levels above 25% are often rejected. As harvesting resumed under improving conditions, large volumes of feed and lower-quality wheat entered the market, reinforcing expectations of an unusually high share of feed wheat this season. By August 21, Ukraine had threshed 21 mmt of wheat from 4.87 million hectares (ha), 98% of the planned area, achieving a yield of 4.31 mt/ha, 3.7% below last year. For the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported 2.03 mmt of wheat, down from 3.09 mmt in the same period last year. In the first 22 days of Aug-25, 1.27 mmt of wheat were exported compared to 1.54 mmt in the same period in 2024.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Optimize Logistics and Port Operations to Avoid Export Bottlenecks

The Russian experience at Kavkaz Port highlights how logistical inefficiencies can disrupt the global wheat trade. Governments and private sector stakeholders should prioritize the modernization of port infrastructure, streamline clearance procedures, and improve storage facilities to reduce bottlenecks. Establishing alternative routes and maintaining buffer capacities in warehouses can ensure smooth handling of high volumes during peak harvest seasons. Exporters should also coordinate with shipping companies to optimize vessel schedules and minimize waiting times, which can lower freight costs and maintain reliability in global supply chains.

Leverage Domestic Production Surpluses to Stabilize Markets

Countries with abundant wheat harvests, such as Australia and the US, can use their surpluses strategically to influence market stability. Timely marketing and targeted export programs can prevent global prices from plunging, while maintaining farmers’ profitability. Coordinated sales planning, including prioritizing high-demand regions and adjusting shipment volumes to avoid market saturation, can ensure a steady supply to import-dependent countries. Additionally, governments can provide support programs, such as subsidized logistics or temporary export incentives, to maintain competitiveness while addressing supply gaps caused by droughts or geopolitical disruptions in other producing regions.

Enhance Risk Management for Food Security in Import-Dependent Regions

Countries heavily reliant on wheat imports, including Egypt, Syria, and Iraq, face heightened vulnerability to supply shortages, price volatility, and geopolitical risks. These nations should implement risk mitigation measures such as building strategic reserves, securing long-term procurement contracts from multiple sources, and investing in domestic storage infrastructure. Governments can also develop contingency plans to maintain subsidized bread programs, manage inflationary pressures, and ensure uninterrupted food distribution during supply shocks. Additionally, regional cooperation agreements and shared reserve programs could provide an extra buffer, ensuring that critical wheat supplies remain accessible even during global market turbulence.

Sources: Tridge, SuperAgronomist, UkrAgroConsult