1. Weekly News

European Union

EU-Mercosur Deal Sparks Fears of 60% Surge in South American Beef Imports

The European Commission (EC) has presented the European Union (EU)-Mercosur trade agreement for approval, framing it as a major opportunity to boost EU exports. However, it faces strong resistance over its impact on the beef sector. The deal would grant Mercosur countries, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, significant additional access to the EU beef market, with imports projected to rise by over 60%, particularly of high-quality cuts, creating direct competition with European producers. While the EC promises safeguards, such as limiting preferential imports to around 1.5% of EU beef production and activating crisis measures if imports surge by more than 10% or prices fall by that amount, farmers and unions argue these protections are insufficient. Critics warn that beef from intensive systems in Mercosur fails to meet EU animal welfare and environmental standards, undermining European producers who are already struggling with competitiveness. Concerns also extend to deforestation in South America, linked to beef and soy expansion, which could contradict EU sustainability goals. Despite the Commission’s efforts to soften opposition, especially from France and Poland, many agricultural groups remain skeptical, viewing the deal as a threat to EU beef production, farm incomes, and rural livelihoods.

Argentina

Lack of Oversight Fuels Animal Cruelty in Argentine Meat Industry

Animal Equality has filed a formal complaint against slaughterhouses in Buenos Aires, unveiling severe animal welfare violations such as the illegal use of clubs, poor stunning practices, and excessive use of electric prods, all exacerbated by weak oversight. Conducted in late 2024, it highlights systemic cruelty toward cows and pigs. Beyond immediate welfare concerns, the report warned that the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement could worsen conditions, projecting a 20% increase in cow and calf exports and a 250% rise in chicken exports, potentially subjecting billions more animals to cruelty.

Mexico

Mexico Balances Growing Beef Demand with US Imports and Expanding Brazilian Supply

Beef consumption in Mexico is projected to continue rising through 2026, reinforcing the country’s role as a strategic market for United States (US) beef even as domestic production expands. In 2024, Mexico imported 232.49 thousand metric tons (mt) of US beef worth USD 1.3 billion, a 10% increase from 2023. However, shipments declined 7% year-on-year (YoY) in the first half of 2025 amid political frictions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) before showing signs of recovery in Jun-25. As a result, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts Mexican beef consumption to grow 4% YoY in 2025 and 7% YoY by 2026, reaching 2.4 million metric tons (mmt). On the other hand, domestic production is expected to rise 2% annually, aided by greater feeder cattle availability after the US border closure to live cattle due to screwworm outbreaks. At the same time, Mexico is diversifying suppliers, with beef imports from Brazil projected to rise 20% YoY in 2025 and 5% YoY in 2026 to 300 thousand mt. Meanwhile, Mexican beef exports are expanding into key markets such as the US, Canada, Japan, and South Korea, supported by high prices, with shipments forecast to grow 5% YoY in 2025 and 11% YoY in 2026.

Paraguay

Paraguayan Beef Exports Reach All-Time Peak Amid Expanding Global Demand

Paraguay’s beef exports reached a record high of 247.6 thousand mt, worth USD 1.43 billion in Aug-25. Chile remained the leading destination with more than 77 thousand mt, followed by Taiwan with over 33 mt. Israel, the US, Brazil, and Russia also received significant volumes. This strong performance highlights Paraguay’s growing presence in the global beef trade and the diversification of its export markets.

Spain

Spanish Beef Prices Surge Amid Tight Supply and Strong Export Demand

In Spain, beef carcass prices have risen sharply due to limited supply and strong demand, both domestically and internationally. September has traditionally been a bullish month for the Spanish beef market as consumption picks up after the holidays. However, this year demand has been further fueled by increased interest from European countries like Italy and France, as well as exports of live animals to Lebanon and carcasses to Algeria. With low animal weights, fewer slaughters, and high entry costs, producers are reluctant to rush sales, driving up prices across categories, including cows. It is worth noting that Spain currently has some of the lowest beef prices in Europe, making exports particularly active, while globally beef remains one of the most traded agricultural products, with Brazil leading exports. Rising demand in the US and China has also pushed international beef prices higher, reflected in the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index reaching a new record of 128.0 points in Aug-25.

United States

EU Tariff Relief and Australian Ban Lift Boost US Bison Market Access

American bison producers recently celebrated two major trade breakthroughs that boost their global market prospects. The EC proposed legislation to grant duty-free access to US bison meat under a quota of 3 thousand mt, eliminating the current 20% tariff. This represents a long-sought victory for the industry that has faced competitive disadvantages compared to Canadian producers. At the same time, Australia lifted its two-decade ban on American bison imports, originally imposed in response to a 2003 case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. These developments signal expanding opportunities in Europe and potentially in key Asian markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

US Beef Faces Setback as China Halts Shipments from Key Slaughterhouses

The General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC) has suspended beef imports from five US slaughterhouses, including those operated by Tyson Foods and Swift Beef Company. At the same time, it reinstated one plant in Uruguay. The suspension adds pressure on US exporters, as beef shipments to China have not yet resumed.

Uruguay

Uruguayan Beef Exports Surge as EU Demand Climbs and Mercosur Deal Nears

In Aug-25, the EU overtook China and the US to become the leading market for Uruguayan beef in value terms, accounting for 33% of exports worth USD 71.7 million. Despite shipping nearly half the volume sent to China, higher EU prices drove this outcome, with demand rising 61% YoY to 8.63 thousand mt. Cumulatively, EU purchases in the first eight months of 2025 surged 56% compared to last year, while the United Kingdom (UK) also posted a 76% YoY increase. The EU is consolidating its role as a key market, supported by the forthcoming EU-Mercosur agreement, which will eliminate the 20% Hilton tariff and gradually implement a 99 thousand-mt annual quota under reduced tariffs, offering new opportunities for Uruguay and other Mercosur exporters. Export prices are tracking near record highs, with Aug-25 reaching USD 5,454/mt and the recent average export income (IMEx) at USD 5,752, nearly 21% higher YoY. Overall, Aug-25 shipments rose 10% YoY to 39.96 thousand mt, with China regaining its position as the top destination by volume at 40% of exports, followed by strong gains in the US and EU markets.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Beef Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Beef Pricing Important Exporters (W36 2024 to W36 2025)

Brazil

In W36, Brazil’s wholesale beef price rose 0.22% week-on-week (WoW) and 7.46% YoY to USD 4.61 per kilogram (kg), though it fell 0.22% month-on-month (MoM). Local prices remained stable at BRL 25.0/kg for the fifth consecutive week, indicating the influence of the exchange rates on the weekly price shift. The wholesale market showed firm pricing across most of Brazil, reflecting short-term upward pressure driven by rising wages and shifting wholesale-retail dynamics, while chicken remains more competitive. The physical market largely maintained existing price patterns, except in Mato Grosso, where buyers sought lower levels. Also, larger slaughterhouses benefited from partner animals, term contracts, and their own confinement.

Australia

In W36, Australia’s beef prices rose 0.33% WoW to USD 3.08/kg, reflecting a 4.41% MoM increase and a 31.06% YoY gain. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), most market indicators strengthened, particularly the feeder steer and dairy cow indicators, driven by strong demand in Queensland and Victoria. Lot feeders often outbid restockers, while reduced cow numbers at Dalby and limited quality pens at Leongatha contributed to higher prices, with buyers showing slightly less selectivity.

United States

In W36, US lean beef (92% to 94%) averaged USD 9.78/kg, up 0.20% WoW, 2.30% MoM, and 11.77% YoY. This bullish price trend is supported by tight supply from constrained cattle inventories and strong domestic demand. Total US cattle inventory stood at 94.2 million heads as of July 1, with 28.7 million beef cattle. This reflects modest recovery but remains slightly below year-ago levels, indicating beef supply tightness. Market dynamics are further influenced by the 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, which has limited imports from the country. Border disruptions with Mexico due to New World screwworm concerns have also caused issues with beef supply to the US. These situations have heightened surveillance, reinforced near-term price firmness, and upward pressure on lean beef.

Argentina

In W36, Argentina’s average steer beef price declined 0.87% WoW and 3.78% MoM to USD 2.29/kg, likely suggesting slow demand over the week. However, the price remained 17.44% higher YoY, reflecting underlying structural demand growth. Domestic consumption is rebounding, with per capita beef consumption reaching 50.24 kg in Jul-25, supported by recovering household demand after the 2024 slump caused by economic challenges. Rising real incomes, with wages up 52% YoY across public and private sectors according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census of Argentina (INDEC), are boosting purchasing power, and beef, being a cultural staple, is often prioritized in household spending. These factors underpin sustained price momentum despite temporary weekly and monthly declines, while ongoing economic improvements and steady demand are likely to support Argentine beef prices in the near term.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Safeguard EU Producers As Mercosur Beef Imports Surge

The EU should reinforce safeguard mechanisms in the Mercosur trade agreement by implementing strict traceability, sustainability, and animal welfare certification requirements for imported beef. This would ensure imports meet EU standards and prevent unfair competition. At the same time, the EU could channel Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) funds to support small and medium-sized beef farmers in adapting to higher environmental and animal welfare standards, helping them remain competitive while preserving rural livelihoods.

Strengthen Oversight in Argentina’s Meat Industry

Argentina should prioritize stricter enforcement of animal welfare regulations through regular, independent inspections of slaughterhouses and supply chains. Introducing mandatory training for workers, stronger penalties for violations, and transparency measures such as public reporting would both improve welfare standards and safeguard export credibility, especially in light of the EU-Mercosur deal. This proactive approach could help Argentina secure premium access to international markets that increasingly demand ethically sourced meat.

Strengthen Market Stability Through Trade and Branding

Paraguay and Uruguay can strengthen their positions in the global beef market by leveraging their unique advantages and expanding beyond traditional partners. For Paraguay, consolidating record-breaking export growth requires diversifying into premium Asian and Middle Eastern markets, supported by investment in cold chain infrastructure, halal and niche certifications, and proactive trade promotion to reduce reliance on Chile and Taiwan. Meanwhile, Uruguay can maximize the benefits of the EU-Mercosur agreement by emphasizing its reputation for sustainably raised, grass-fed beef, expanding chilled beef exports, and maintaining strong traceability systems. Both countries would benefit from pursuing new opportunities in markets such as the UK, the US, and Asia, while strengthening bilateral agreements to secure long-term stability and resilience against growing competition.

Sources: Tridge, Agrodiario, Agromeat, Agropopular, UkrAgroConsult