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In W36 in the olive oil landscape, some of the most relevant trends included:

  • Spain has solidified its position as Italy's primary olive oil supplier, exporting 229,400 mt valued at over USD 1 billion in the first nine months of the 2024/25 campaign. This trade is driven by a significant price advantage, with Spanish extra virgin oil costing more than 50% less than Italian oil.
  • The Italian olive oil industry is facing significant new regulations designed to enhance transparency and manage by-products. Mills now face strict, mandatory deadlines to classify oil, eliminating the indefinite awaiting classification status, and must prioritize oil extraction from pomace before it can be used for energy usage.
  • Spanish producers have actively countered false online rumors about using Moroccan olive oil in their products by clarifying sourcing and introducing QR codes for traceability. 
  • Prices in the Mediterranean are in a state of transition as the market eagerly awaits the start of the 2025/26 harvest. Greek and Tunisian markets are static due to depleted old-season stocks, while Italy's price remains at a high premium due to structural supply shortfalls.

1. Weekly News

Italy

Economic Pressures Drive Shift to Olive Pomace Oil in Italy

Economic pressures and rising food costs are significantly reshaping consumer habits in the Italian cooking oil market. An analysis conducted by the Interregional Association of Olive Producers (AIPO) reveals a notable resurgence in the popularity of olive pomace oil, which consumers are adopting as a cost-effective intermediate alternative to premium olive oils and seed oils. The data shows that between 2020 and 2025, the price of seed oils increased 43%, followed by olive oil rising 33%, while olive pomace oil only increased 27%. During the same period, the consumption of olive pomace oil has surged by 28.57%. This growth dramatically outpaces that of both regular olive oil (14.29%) and seed oils (13.85%), underscoring a clear market shift towards value-driven purchasing in response to sustained economic strain. This trend highlights how budget-conscious consumers are actively seeking middle-ground products that balance cost and quality.

Italy Implements Deadlines for Olive Oil Classification to Boost Transparency

Italian authorities have introduced new mandatory regulations for olive oil mills, effective from the 2025/26 season, to enhance traceability and transparency in the national supply chain. Issued by the Central Inspectorate for Fraud Prevention (ICQRF), the rules address the issue of significant oil quantities remaining indefinitely as "awaiting classification" in the electronic register. A key deadline requires all oil from campaigns prior to 2025/26 to be definitively classified and registered by September 30, 2025. For the upcoming season, stricter timelines are in place. Oil produced before the end of 2025 must be classified by January 10 and registered on the SIAN portal by January 16. Oil produced in Jan-25 must be classified by February 10 and registered on the National Agricultural Information System (SIAN) portal by February 16. Oil produced from Feb-26 onwards must be classified within six days of milling and registered on the SIAN portal within six days of classification. Mills must also immediately update the identification signs on storage tanks to reflect the oil's category (extra virgin, virgin, or lampante) upon classification. Failure to comply with these procedures will result in penalties, as the measures are designed to ensure a more accurate and timely record of national olive oil stocks.

Italian Court Ruling Reshapes Olive Pomace Disposal, Prioritizing 'Food First' Principle

A landmark ruling by Italy's Council of State on June 10, 2025, is expected to alter the management of olive pomace, creating new responsibilities and potential costs for oil mills. Based on the European "food first" principle, the court has decreed that Biphasic and wet pomace, which is still rich in residual oil, cannot benefit from the double incentive for the production of biomethane if its food purpose is not first verified and valued. This principle requires that all agricultural biomass be used primarily for human consumption, and only if no longer suitable for human consumption, be used for other purposes such as energy production. The ruling mandates that pomace must first be sent to pomace factories to extract any remaining oil for food use. Only after it is exhausted and devoid of food value can it be used for energy purposes and receive the full incentive. This decision shifts the burden of proof to millers, who must now provide documented evidence that their pomace has no practicable food use before it is disposed of. The ruling has immediate market consequences, with mills fearing increased disposal costs and logistical challenges in the 2025/26 season, particularly for those located far from the few operational pomace plants.

Spain

Spain Solidifies Position as Italy's Top Olive Oil Supplier in 2024/25 Season

Spain has solidified its position as the primary olive oil supplier for the Italian market, driven by Italy's poor 2024/25 harvest and Spain's abundant production. In the first nine months of the current campaign (Oct-24 to Jun-25), Spain exported 229,400 metric tons (mt) of olive oil to Italy, a volume nearly equivalent to Italy's entire output in the previous season and representing almost 30% of Spain's total exports of 726,100 mt during this period. This large-scale purchasing was fueled by a significant price advantage, with Spanish extra virgin oil costing more than 50% less than Italian oil, enabling Italy to meet its annual domestic demand of approximately 500,000 mt, as well as fuel its export market. The total value of these exports to Italy for Spain surpassed USD 1.18 billion (EUR 1 billion), at an average price of USD 5.47 per kilogram (EUR 4.65/kg). An interesting consequence of this trade is that Italian purchases have contributed over USD 1.53 million (EUR 1.3 million) to the promotional fund for Spanish olive oil, effectively helping to finance the global marketing of a key competitor's product.

Spanish Olive Oil Brands Counter False Moroccan Origin Rumors

Major Spanish olive oil producers are actively refuting viral online claims that their products are being blended with Moroccan olive oil. The claims targeted well-known brands like Carbonell, Hojiblanca, and Koipe, using images of old bottle labels that stated the oil was sourced from olives "grown inside and outside the European Union". Deoleo, the parent company, clarified that this labeling was used during the severe 2022/23 drought when they supplemented their supply with oils from Chile, Argentina, and Tunisia to meet demand, but confirmed that Morocco has never been a supplier. In a move to restore consumer confidence, the company announced that as of Aug-25, all three brands have returned to using 100% Spanish olive oil. Furthermore, Carbonell bottles now feature a QR code allowing customers to trace the oil's exact origin, harvest campaign, and packaging date, a direct strategic response to protect brand integrity in a market where Spain accounts for nearly 50% of global production.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

* All pricing is wholesale * Varieties: All pricing is for extra virgin olive oil

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W36 2024 to W36 2025)

* All pricing is wholesale * Varieties: All pricing is for extra virgin olive oil* Blank spaces on the graph signify data unavailability stemming from factors like missing data, supply unavailability, or seasonality

Italy

In Italy, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 10.66/kg in W36, up 0.28% week-on-week (WoW), up 0.09% month-on-month (MoM), and up 3.90% year-on-year (YoY). The slight WoW increase reflects the continued strength of premium domestic oil prices, which rose as the market contends with severe domestic supply constraints. The near-flat MoM change confirms the market remains in a high-level equilibrium. Prices for Italian oil are supported by domestic scarcity but capped by the industry's continued reliance on elevated import levels from Spain and Greece to meet demand. The sustained YoY price premium is a direct consequence of long-term production shortfalls. These shortfalls, stemming from persistent structural challenges, especially in southern growing regions, are expected to continue, ensuring Italian oil maintains its high value compared to other origins.

Greece

In Greece, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.69/kg in W36, up 0.43% WoW, up 5.39% MoM, but down 40.03% YoY. The slight WoW increase indicates that the end-of-season supply squeeze is maintaining its grip on the market. With stocks of high-quality oil from the previous harvest almost entirely depleted, prices are holding firm at the high levels reached in late Aug-25. The strong MoM increase is a clear reflection of the price rally during this period, driven by strong buyer demand competing for the last available volumes. Greek growers are cautiously optimistic about the 2025/26 season, with more flowering nodes reported compared to the previous season. However, the summer heatwave across Europe has created uncertainty about final fruit development and oil production. The 40.03% YoY price drop remains the dominant long-term trend. This is a direct consequence of the strong production rebound during the 2024/25 season, which ended the period of severe scarcity and record-high prices seen in the previous year.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.66/kg in W36, up 0.22% WoW, flat MoM, but down 44.19% YoY. The Tunisian market remains at a virtual standstill, with the marginal WoW change and flat MoM price reflecting a profound lack of trading activity as the season transitions between harvests. With remaining stocks from the 2024/25 season facing quality risks from summer heat, many buyers have turned to European suppliers for their immediate needs, bringing the Tunisian market to an effective halt while awaiting the new harvest. The significant 44.19% YoY price collapse continues to be the dominant long-term market feature. This reflects the dramatic market correction from the record-high prices of the previous year, a direct result of the strong 2024/25 production rebound that led to a well-supplied global market.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Audit and Upgrade Systems to Comply with New Classification Deadlines

With Italy's ICQRF imposing strict new deadlines for oil classification, the risk of non-compliance is now a significant business threat. Millers must act immediately, especially to meet the September 30, 2025, deadline for classifying all oil from previous campaigns. The recommended action is to conduct a full audit of current inventory and data management systems to ensure they can meet the new, faster reporting requirements for the 2025/26 season, such as the six-day turnaround for oil produced from Feb-26 onwards. Investing in updated software for the SIAN electronic register and implementing rigorous internal tracking protocols is no longer optional. Proactive adaptation will not only prevent penalties but also enhance operational efficiency and reinforce a mill's reputation for quality and transparency in a market that is increasingly demanding it.

Develop Regional Pomace Logistics Solutions to Address New Italian Disposal Rules

The Italian Council of State's "food first" ruling has fundamentally disrupted the olive pomace disposal market by de-incentivizing the direct-to-biodigester route. This creates a critical logistical gap and a business opportunity for logistics providers and investors. The recommended action is to develop and offer regionalized pomace collection and transport services that consolidate by-products from multiple mills and deliver them efficiently to the few remaining pomace factories. For mills located far from these facilities, such a service would solve a major operational headache and reduce prohibitive individual transport costs. By creating a new, efficient link in the value chain, these logistics solutions can ensure mills remain compliant with the new regulations, prevent supply chain blockages, and establish a profitable new service niche created directly by this regulatory shift.

Sources: Tridge, Olivo News, Euro News

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