1. Weekly News 

Brazil

Production Forecast Cut Amid Yield and Sugar-Content Declines

Brazil’s Center–South region has revised down its 2025/26 sugar output forecast to 40.9–41 million metric tons (mmt), reflecting weaker yields and declines in sugar content per ton of cane. Mills report that cane productivity has been hurt by weather and cane stress, especially in parts of Minas Gerais and Ribeirão Preto. While sugar share of the cane crush remains elevated, the lower output forecast signals tighter supply potential heading into the peak harvest months. 

Global Prices Under Pressure, ISO Projects Narrow Deficit

Global sugar futures have come under downward pressure in W36, driven by expectations that Brazil’s higher sugar-share in crushing and elevated production will soften the earlier fears of a large global shortfall. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global deficit of 231,000 metric tons (mt) in 2025/26, much smaller than last year’s deficit, helping push London and New York raw sugar toward lower range than had been anticipated earlier. 

Lower futures have translated into softer sentiment among traders, with sugar prices extending recent slides to multi-week or multi-month lows in some benchmarks. While export demand remains, much depends on how Brazilian fulfillment and cane quality evolve over the remainder of the harvest. 

India

ISMA Holds Production Estimate Steady Despite Localized Losses

In W36, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) reaffirmed its earlier estimate of 349 lakh tons (34.9 mmt) for the 2025-26 sugar production season, following satellite and field assessments. Although some northern states like Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand suffered localized flooding and yield losses, improvements in cane quality in major producing states (Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu) have helped offset these declines. 

Industry experts note that crop conditions remain generally favorable, especially where monsoon rains have been above normal. However, challenges persist: cane sugar content and waterlogging in certain areas may reduce effective yield. Additionally, delayed harvesting due to rain still threatens to affect sugar recovery in some mills.

Export Push and Capacity Building Remain On the Agenda

Alongside reaffirming production, India’s sugar sector continues to push for export permissions. Industry bodies are urging the government to permit the export of around 2 mmt in the 2025-26 season to avoid domestic surpluses. Additionally, some mills are expanding crushing capacities in key areas (e.g., Agauta mill in UP) to ensure better throughput and reduce delays. 

Policy clarity is expected in the coming weeks, particularly around export quotas, pricing, and support for regions affected by weather. Mills with better infrastructure or access to dry storage are likely to perform comparatively better if localized losses persist.

Mexico

Trade Agreements Hold; Domestic Supply Recovery Gradual

In W36, the United States (US) continued its Suspension Agreements on Mexican sugar, reaffirmed by the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), helping to stabilize trade relations and limit competitive pressure from Mexican sugar entering the US market. Meanwhile, Mexico's domestic sugar output continues a gradual production recovery, following prior drought-impacted seasons, although efficiency constraints persist and export pipelines have not yet reactivated fully.

Domestic market participants report relatively stable wholesale sugar availability, with mills focusing first on internal supply to meet food processing and sugar-using industries. Investors note that any improvements in transport/logistic infrastructure could help unlock both domestic surplus and export potential later in the season.

Value Strategy and Export Prospects Under Watch

With export flows still limited, Mexican producers are increasingly discussing value-added approaches, such as certification, improved sugar quality, possibly organic sugar, to obtain premium pricing in niche international markets. Though these strategies are still developing, some mills are making incremental investments in milling technology and supply chain traceability.

Meanwhile, export prospects remain sensitive to US policy, global sugar price benchmarks, and transport costs. If US suspension agreements continue and global raw sugar prices hold up, Mexico may secure better integration into export markets, but risk remains if benchmark prices decline.

Pakistan

Import Demand Ramps Up as Domestic Prices Stay Elevated

In W36, reports emerged that Pakistan is in talks to procure approximately 100,000 mt of sugar to alleviate domestic supply tightness, following similar demand in prior weeks. The higher import interest is in response to elevated domestic retail and wholesale sugar prices, which have persistently exceeded government reference ex-mill prices, putting pressure on consumers and suggesting shortages or distribution inefficiencies.

Domestic traders also cited short covering and speculative sentiment as factors exacerbating price rises. Although some regulatory measures (anti-hoarding, release of buffer stocks) have been announced by the Pakistani government, actual supply relief has been delayed.

Price Relief Hangs on Import Execution and Market Discipline

Policy analysts emphasize that the key to easing price pressure is swift execution of import contracts coupled with strong enforcement of anti-hoarding rules. Without that, elevated prices may linger, especially in urban centres. Mill stock transparency and provincial sale flows are under scrutiny; where state governments have intervened, there have been reports of slight price softening, though inconsistent.

Market watchers see upcoming months as critical: if imports arrive on schedule and supply chains clear, wholesale prices may respond; otherwise, the market may remain overheated.

United States

US Keeps Suspension Agreements with Mexico Intact to Defend Domestic Producers

In W36, the USITC reaffirmed its decision to maintain the Suspension Agreements on sugar imports from Mexico, citing risks of dumping and subsidization under trade law. The decision ensures that Mexican sugar shipments remain governed by trade rules aimed at preventing injury to US sugarcane and sugarbeet sectors. 

Domestically, this supports a floor for US wholesale sugar prices by limiting disruptive inbound flows. Producers have welcomed the certainty, even as global raw sugar weakens, because it helps insulate them from import-price shocks. However, industrial users express concern that constrained supply under trade restrictions may reduce flexibility and keep domestic margins tight. 

Global Production Outlook Puts Pressure on US Futures and Export Potential

US sugar futures continue to reflect global supply trends: with Brazil’s revised forecasts and stronger sugar share in cane crushing, international benchmarks have softened. US export opportunities, which are already narrow under current trade agreements, may face pressure if global prices decline further. While domestic policy supports maintain price stability at home, competing exporters with better cost structures could capture more share.

For US processors and exporters, the key concern is how relative cost competitiveness fares if freight, energy, and labor costs remain elevated. US wholesale prices may hold firm, but risk of margin erosion is elevated in export channels.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Sugar Pricing Important Producers (USD/kg) 

Yearly Change in Sugar Pricing Important Producers (W36 2024 to W36 2025)  

Brazil

Brazilian wholesale sugar remained flat in W36 at USD 0.44/kg. Spot quotes in São Paulo were broadly stable to slightly softer after some mill selling into recent export windows, while a number of market reports flagged Aug-25 declines in spot values. The near-term domestic tone reflects two competing forces, mills increasing sugar allocation (which expands physical availability) and localized field stress that trimmed seasonal yields in some areas. Overall traded volumes rose in spots where mills offered prompt lots, which constrained upside despite occasional export interest that supports nearby basis.

Near-term bias is sideways to a touch softer unless a weather interruption or logistics bottleneck reduces crush throughput. Traders should expect wholesale ranges to trade within recent corridors, with basis moves driven by any sudden export demand or ethanol margin reversals that would re-shift cane allocation.

United States

US wholesale refined sugar dropped slightly to USD 0.34/kg in W36, down 5.56% week-on-week (WoW). The Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ)/suspension agreement framework continues to cap import pressure and keep domestic refined prices insulated from the global slide; United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlooks still point to comfortable domestic availability even as global raws soften. Commercially, refiners have been cautious on spot selling, preferring contracted volumes, a behavior that limited spot volatility. 

Traders should expect mildly firm US wholesale quotes in W36 while TRQ administration and domestic production expectations remain the dominant influences. A material move would likely require a policy signal (TRQ adjustment) or an unexpected processing disruption. Industry players should watch USDA quota/publications and regional refinery liftings for any early change in tone. 

Mexico

Mexico’s wholesale sugar market was steady this week across major distribution centers, with prices averaging USD 1.04/kg, up 5.05% WoW. The balance is being maintained by gradual production recovery and mills prioritizing internal offtake while structural export constraints keep volumes largely domestic. 

Near-term outlook is stable, with prices likely to track within existing regional corridors unless a policy announcement on exports/imports or an operational shock at mills/ports occurs. Traders should monitor daily price feeds for any concentration of unusual bids or offers that could presage localized pressure.

Pakistan

Pakistans wholesale sugar prices remained stable at USD 0.60/kg, down 1.64% WoW. Despite weekly stability, prices remain firm, up 25% YoY. Pakistan’s wholesale sugar market stayed under significant strain, with wholesale and retail quotes well above government reference levels as physical supply remained tight. Multiple news reports confirm ongoing import programs (Trading Corporation of Pakistan tenders and government import approvals) intended to alleviate shortages, but deliverability and distribution remain the limiting factors. The combination of speculative buying, hoarding concerns and delayed import arrivals has kept wholesale markers elevated and volatile, with reported wholesale bands materially higher than official ex-mill numbers.

Price bias is firm and volatile until large import cargoes are landed and effectively released into distribution. However, if imports accelerate and anti-hoarding enforcement tightens, wholesale levels could ease modestly. Conversely, continued tender hiccups or logistical delays would sustain upside risk. Market participants should watch TCP tender outcomes and port arrival schedules as the key near-term indicators.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Strengthen Inventory and Hedging Strategies in Volatile Markets

Given Brazil’s fragile stock cushion and Pakistan’s persistent supply stress, producers, refiners, and traders should prioritize stronger inventory management and structured hedging programs. In Brazil, maintaining buffer stocks can help smooth supply when rainfall disrupts crushing, while in Pakistan, import-dependent refiners should secure forward cover on cargo arrivals to mitigate risks of tender delays. Futures and options on ICE contracts offer an additional layer of protection, particularly in markets where domestic and international prices are diverging. This approach reduces exposure to sudden swings and ensures continuity of supply commitments.

Monitor and Adjust to Policy Shifts in Quota and Import Programs

The US and Mexico illustrate how state-led mechanisms such as TRQs and controlled export/import policies directly shape price behavior. Industry players should closely track USDA quota releases and Pakistan’s import tender outcomes, since these decisions often pre-empt market moves. Aligning procurement or export plans with policy calendars, such as timing shipments when quota windows open or positioning imports ahead of subsidy or tariff revisions, can secure more favorable pricing. For traders, proactive monitoring of these shifts can help capture arbitrage opportunities in cross-border flows.

Diversify Market Channels and Invest in Value-Added Segments

With Mexico focusing more on quality-driven exports and India advancing ethanol blending programs, the long-term competitiveness of traditional sugar sales will hinge on differentiation. Producers and refiners across these markets should explore downstream investments in refined, specialty, or organic sugar products to capture value premiums, especially when bulk raw sugar faces export or quota restrictions. In parallel, diversifying customer bases across domestic and regional buyers reduces reliance on a single outlet. In Pakistan, where domestic demand remains strong despite high prices, bundling sugar with supply contracts to institutional buyers may also strengthen cash flow resilience.

Sources: Tridge, USDA, CEPEA, Arab News, Sugar Online, AP News, Economia SNIIM