1. Weekly News

Global

Climate Change Is Driving Increased Volatility in Global Olive Oil Production According to RaboResearch

Climate change is the primary driver of increasing volatility in global olive oil production and prices, according to a new report from RaboResearch. Unpredictable weather in the Mediterranean, responsible for 95% of global output, has led to unstable supplies. The 2024/25 season exemplified this with a significant production rebound, which caused benchmark Spanish prices to drop to USD 3,768 per metric ton (EUR 3,200/mt) by Mar-25. In contrast, Italian extra-virgin olive oil prices remained high, exceeding USD 10,600/mt (EUR 9,000/mt) and creating a record premium. The report identifies the long-term challenge not as a decline in average production, but as growing year-to-year volatility, creating uncertainty for the entire sector. To manage this, producers need to adapt their orchard management strategies primarily through irrigation. However additional strategies such as soil and canopy management, pest control, and the use of climate-resilient varieties should also be implemented, depending on the local conditions. For downstream companies, mitigating risk by diversifying sourcing across different regions and hemispheres and partnering with growers on sustainable practices to enhance long-term resilience is suggested.

Europe

European Food Inflation Drives Consumers to Cheaper, Private-Label Olive Oil

Persistent food inflation across Europe is significantly altering consumer purchasing habits, particularly for olive oil, which has experienced some of the sharpest price hikes. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), consumers are paying about a third more for meals than before the pandemic, with olive oil prices rising by approximately 50% across the European Union (EU) between 2019 and 2025. This sustained price pressure is causing shoppers to trade down to more affordable olive oil alternatives. A major trend is the growing dominance of private-label (store brand) products, with 84% of consumers indicating they will continue to purchase them even if their financial situation improves. In Mediterranean countries, households are cutting back on volumes or switching to cheaper blends rather than abandoning olive oil completely, while consumers in northern Europe may be shifting to other fats entirely. This market shift presents a significant challenge for quality-focused and non-EU producers, as shelf space becomes increasingly dominated by retailer-controlled brands and consumer focus narrows to price.

New European Project OLIWA to Transform Olive Waste into High-Value Products

A new, ambitious European research initiative, Project Repurposing Olive Waste in Circular Economy Solutions for Feeds, Additives, Packaging and Biogas (OLIWA), has been launched to transform olive by-products into high-value co-products, focusing on circular economy and zero-waste principles. Coordinated by the University of Turin, the project brings together a multidisciplinary consortium of 25 partners from six Mediterranean countries (Italy, Spain, Greece, Türkiye, Algeria and Tunisia). The primary goal is to create sustainable value chains by exploring innovative applications for olive grove waste. The research will focus on several key areas: using by-products in insect farming to produce high-quality animal feed, developing natural olive extracts as feed additives, creating sustainable food packaging materials derived from olive pomace, and producing biogas from waste streams. The Technological Institute of Plastics center (AIMPLAS) will specifically work on developing rigid packaging prototypes like bottles and trays from olive-derived materials. The OLIWA project aims to validate these circular solutions and reduce food loss and waste by at least 25%, representing a significant step toward generating new economic opportunities and improving the sustainability of the Mediterranean olive oil industry.

Belgium

Belgium Uncovers Widespread Olive Oil Fraud, Prompting Regulatory Action

Belgian regulators have launched an investigation after a report from the newspaper Het Nieuwsblad revealed significant quality issues and fraud in olive oils sold in the country's major supermarkets. Out of 32 brands labeled as extra virgin that were tested, 20 failed to meet the quality standards for that grade. The tests, conducted by the Dutch Olive Oil Institute, downgraded one sample to lampante, a grade considered unsafe for human consumption, while chemical analysis by the University of Ghent found another sample was adulterated with what appeared to be sunflower oil. The investigation has led to product recalls and has highlighted concerns about insufficient regulatory oversight in the EU. Experts involved in the testing noted that the EU only requires Belgium to check 22 bottles annually, stating that the chance of being caught is slim and that the door is wide open for fraud. The incident underscores the increased incentive for fraudulent practices following recent poor harvests and record-high prices in the olive oil sector.

Greece

New Greek Olive Oil Association SYPETEEL Formed to Unify Sector

A new industry body, the Greek Olive Oil Production, Trading, and Packaging Association (SYPETEEL), was officially established at its Founding General Assembly in Athens on September 18, 2025. The association aims to create a unified value chain connecting all segments of the industry, from olive cultivation and milling to trading and packaging, in an effort to strengthen the Greek olive oil sector and its contribution to the national economy. The assembly elected a provisional Board of Directors, with Dimitris Favvas of Eleones Favvas appointed as President. In his opening remarks, Favvas stated that key priorities include optimizing production resources and engaging all stakeholders through strategic partnerships and interdisciplinary collaboration. SYPETEEL has issued a call for all private and cooperative businesses within the Greek olive oil industry to collaborate with the new association. The initiative represents a significant move to consolidate the fragmented sector and address the challenges facing Greek olive oil through a coordinated, industry-wide approach.

Italy

Italian Producers Expect 300,000 MT Olive Harvest Despite Regional Pest and Drought Challenges

Italian olive oil producers are optimistic that the 2025/26 harvest will reach 300,000 mt, a significant increase from the 250,000 mt produced in the previous campaign. However, this positive national outlook is tempered by severe and contrasting regional challenges that are creating uncertainty over final yields and quality. In central and northern regions, including Tuscany, producers are facing an off-year in the natural bearing cycle, with yields expected to decline by 30% to 50%. This is compounded by a significant infestation of the olive fruit fly, fueled by mild temperatures and high humidity. Conversely, key southern regions have largely avoided the pest due to hotter, drier weather. Despite this, areas like Sicily's Belice Valley are experiencing severe drought and water scarcity, causing olives to shrivel and leading to forecasts of a drastic loss of yield for non-irrigated groves. Due to these widespread production pressures, olive prices are expected to remain high, comparable to last year's levels.

Italian Project Pioneers Use of Olive Mill Wastewater Polyphenols as Natural Food Preservative

A collaborative project in Umbria, Italy, is developing a high-value food application for olive mill vegetation water, a major industry by-product rich in polyphenols. The initiative, involving the Centumbrie oil mill, the flavor company Sterling Aromi, and the University of Perugia, focuses on rapidly extracting, stabilizing, and drying the phenolic content from fresh wastewater. This process yields an extract with a particularly high concentration of oleacein, a compound known for its potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties. While these extracts have previously been sold to the livestock sector, the project is now targeting the human food industry to create greater added value. A key application being explored is the use of the polyphenol extracts as a natural replacement for synthetic nitrites and nitrates in cured meats. This innovation addresses growing consumer health concerns about nitrites, which can form carcinogenic compounds. The purified water can also be reused within the mill, creating a virtuous circle that transforms a problematic waste stream into a valuable resource.

Portugal

Premium Portuguese Olive Oil Brand Coração do Vale Enters Indian Market

A new premium Portuguese extra virgin olive oil brand, Coração do Vale, has been launched in India at the World Food India 2025 event. The launch is the result of a strategic Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Indian marketing firm Leads Brand Connect and Portuguese producer Lagar do Vale. Sourced exclusively from the Baixo Alentejo region of Portugal, the oil is being positioned as an ultra-premium luxury product targeted at discerning consumers and food connoisseurs. It is crafted from a blend of indigenous Portuguese olive varieties, including Cobrançosa and Picual, known for their distinctive, fruity, and balanced profile. The brand's market entry strategy focuses on exclusivity. Coração do Vale will be released in limited batches and sold in a 500 ml tinted bottle with premium black and gold packaging. It will be available only through pre-bookings on its direct-to-consumer (D2C) website. The launch aims to introduce a new premium origin to an Indian market currently dominated by Spanish and Italian oils, strengthening trade relations between India and Portugal. This is an example of Portuguese olive oil expanding beyond traditional markets and how Portuguese producers can brand, bottle, and export their products instead of primarily selling in bulk.

Tunisia

UK Opens Q4 2025 Zero Duty Import Quota for Tunisian Olive Oil

The United Kingdom (UK) government has announced the details for its tariff-rate import quota for Tunisian olive oil for Q4-2025, as outlined in Notice to Traders 80/25. The application window for import licenses is brief, running from October 1, 2025, to 5 pm on October 7, 2025, with any applications received after the deadline set to be rejected. The notice makes a total of

A total of 6,800,199 kilograms (kg) of Tunisian olive oil is available for import under the zero-duty quota. To be eligible, importers must be established and registered for Value Added Tax (VAT) in the UK. A security deposit of USD 213/mt (GBP 170/mt) must accompany each application. Licenses granted under this quota will be valid from October 1, 2025, through to December 31, 2025. This provides a clear opportunity for UK-based importers to source Tunisian olive oil under the established quota system for the final quarter of the year.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W39 2024 to W39 2025)

Italy

In Italy, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 10.59/kg in W39, down 0.94% week-on-week (WoW), down 0.66% month-on-month (MoM), but up 2.52% year-on-year (YoY). The WoW and MoM declines mark a break from the market's long-standing stability, likely driven by localized speculative activity. Reports have emerged of speculators attempting to offload stocks purchased at lower prices, creating downward pressure in a market characterized by low transaction volumes as the industry awaits the new harvest. Despite this recent dip, the price remains up YoY, reflecting Italy's long-term structural production deficit and its established position as a premium origin, which continues to support a high price floor compared to previous years.

Greece

In Greece, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.68/kg in W39, down 0.43% WoW, down 0.21% MoM, and down 41.21% YoY. The slight WoW and MoM price decreases are the result of a notable shift in the market, with some Greek suppliers now willing to sell their remaining old-season stocks. This movement is reportedly focused on oils of borderline quality, as producers prioritize clearing inventory ahead of the delayed new harvest. This injection of supply into a market with low demand, where buyers are cautiously waiting for new oil, has exerted slight downward pressure on prices. The massive YoY price drop reflects the fundamental market reset following the strong 2024/25 production rebound.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, the price of extra virgin olive oil was USD 4.95/kg in W39, up 0.81% WoW, up 6.22% MoM, but down 40.79% YoY. The price for the new season's crop continues to firm up, with the WoW increase reflecting the global climate of uncertainty ahead of the harvest. With widespread drought and water shortage concerns in other major producing countries, particularly Spain, the market is pricing in a higher risk of constrained global supply, thereby increasing the value of the anticipated strong Tunisian harvest. The significant YoY decline is a result of the market correction from the crisis levels of the previous year.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Proactively Market Enhanced Traceability to Build Consumer Trust

The discovery of widespread olive oil fraud in Belgian supermarkets highlights a critical vulnerability in consumer trust and regulatory oversight. For premium brands and retailers, this is an opportunity to differentiate on the basis of authenticity. It's recommended to proactively implement and prominently market enhanced traceability systems, such as QR codes on packaging that link to harvest data and quality certifications. By investing in and communicating these transparent measures, companies can provide consumers with the assurance that they are purchasing a genuine, high-quality product, justifying a premium price point. In a market where even expensive oils were found to have quality issues, simply relying on price as a signal of quality is no longer sufficient. Verifiable proof of origin and integrity is now a key competitive advantage.

Use Market Lull to Negotiate Favorable Forward Delivery Contracts

The current suspended state of the olive oil market, characterized by low transaction volumes as buyers await the new harvest, presents a strategic procurement opportunity. With significant uncertainty surrounding the final yield due to widespread drought, the spot market is likely to remain volatile. It's recommended that buyers and importers use this quiet period to engage suppliers in negotiations for forward delivery contracts for Nov-25 and beyond. Some suppliers may be willing to offer decreased prices for these future commitments to secure sales. By locking in volumes and prices now, buyers can potentially secure a more favorable rate than what may be available on the spot market once the harvest's true (and possibly reduced) volume becomes clear, thereby mitigating price risk in an uncertain climate.

Sources: Tridge, OlivoNews, Olive Oil Times, Food-Drinks & Innovations, Olive News, Oils & Fats International