W41: Lemon and Lime Update

In W41 in the lemon and lime landscape, the lemon campaign for the variety "Adalia" began in October 1, 2023, and will continue until February 20, 2024, with strong demand due to market shortages. The period bridges the gap between the end of the South African and the start of the Egyptian lemon campaigns. The Egyptian citrus industry anticipates a successful season with an increased production area by 25% YoY. Furthermore, Egypt exported nearly 100 thousand tons of lemon in the 2022/23 season, and higher volumes of lemon exports are expected for the 2023/24 season. The lemon crop is anticipated to include varying sizes, with approximately 70% being within the 100, 113, 125, and 138 size range. Smaller sizes, up to 150, are expected to constitute around 20% of the yield, while the larger sizes, particularly 80 and 88, are projected to make up about 10% of the total production.

Lemon production in Spain has significantly declined due to adverse weather conditions, with the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) estimating the total volume at 1.16 million tons for the 2023/24 campaign. A severe hailstorm hit lemon-producing municipalities in the Vega Baja del Segura region, causing 31.7% of insured production to be lost. Technicians estimated losses at 18.9 thousand tons distributed over 884.1 hectares (ha). The lemon production in Alicante City is expected to reach 360 thousand tons, lost 114 thousand tons in this province alone.

Moreover, lemon prices in Spain have slightly dropped in recent weeks, ranging from USD 0.58 to 0.63 per kilogram (EUR 0.55 to 0.60/kg) in field prices in W40. This decline is attributed to a shortage of normal-sized lemons caused by dry weather and high temperatures, impacting origin prices and the need to pass price increases on to customers.

Due to favorable weather conditions, lemon production increased by 20 to 30% in 2023, primarily in Anyue, Sichuan, China. The improved quality of Chinese lemons has led to a decrease in origin prices from the beginning of the harvest season, initially at around USD 0.84/kg (RMB 6/kg). Sichuan Mengtaiyuan Trading Co., Ltd., located in Anyue, Sichuan, engages in lemon production, processing, and export, with Southeast Asia and Russia as its main export markets. The company's sales manager reported that the Chinese lemon exports to Southeast Asia face competition from South Africa and Egypt. In contrast, exports to the Russian market compete mainly with Turkey. Turkish and Egyptian lemons offer better cost advantages but have limited seasonal availability.

On the other hand, tahiti lime prices in Ecuador have surged to USD 2.72/kg (EUR 2.58/kg) due to limited production. In contrast, Meyer lemon prices are slightly lower at USD 1.70/kg (EUR 1.61/kg).