1. Weekly News

Algeria

Decline in Olive Production Expected in Algeria

As the olive harvest season begins in Algeria, a decline in production is expected for 2024 due to high spring temperatures and low precipitation, leading to a projected rise in olive oil prices to USD 10.88 per liter (EUR 10/L), up from USD 7.62/L (EUR 7/L) last year. Algeria ranks fourth in global olive production, with an average annual yield of 900 thousand tons, of which 600 thousand tons are used for oil. The country aims to increase its olive cultivation area from 443 thousand hectares (ha) to 1 million ha by 2030. In the broader Maghreb region, olive oil prices are also rising, reaching USD 16.32/L (EUR 15/L) in Morocco due to significant drops in production.

Brazil

COI Representatives Visit Olive Farmers in Brazil to Promote EVOO Consumption

On October 30 and 31, olive growers in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, will host representatives from the International Olive Council (COI). The visit aims to launch a four-year campaign encouraging the consumption of extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) among Brazilians, with an investment of USD 568.08 thousand (EUR 520 thousand). The COI delegation will visit Caçapava do Sul, Cachoeira do Sul, and Restinga Seca producers. Although Brazil is the world's second-largest consumer of EVOO, it is not yet a member of the COI. Ibraoliva, the Brazilian Olive Institute, advocates for Brazil's inclusion, citing the high quality of its olive oil, which has recently won awards at international competitions.

Greece

Persistent Drought and Limited Rainfall Impact Olive Oil Production in Greece

The Greek olive oil market faces persistent drought, especially in the Peloponnese and Crete, which reduces production expectations. While early-season Greek olive oils are securing prices around USD 8.70 to 8.92 per kilogram (EUR 8 to 8.20/kg), recent rains in Spain, Italy, and Tunisia have delayed their harvests. Greek olive oil yields are anticipated to be affected by the Oct-24 drought, potentially reducing production by up to 20 thousand tons from earlier estimates of 250 thousand tons. The International Olive Council's forthcoming official estimates will clarify the season's outlook, but current reports show disappointing fruit conditions on rain-fed lands and modest yields. Greek producers aim to capitalize on the high demand for premium green-yellow oils.

Morocco

Morocco Lifts Import Tariffs on Olive Oil to Stabilize Prices Amid Production Decline

Morocco's Agriculture Minister announced the suspension of import tariffs on virgin and extra virgin olive oil to support the national market and stabilize prices. Addressing Parliament, the minister highlighted that health authorities would closely inspect imported oils and that export licenses would regulate the types and amounts of olive oil allowed for export. The ongoing drought and high temperatures during the flowering season have reduced olive oil production by an expected 11% compared to last season and 40% compared to an average year. Morocco's olive oil production is anticipated to reach 90 thousand tons this season, while national consumption averages between 130 thousand and 140 thousand tons.

Spain

Spanish Civil Guard and Europol Crack Down on Olive Oil Fraud in Major Food Safety Operation

As part of Operation OPSON XIII, the Spanish Civil Guard, in collaboration with Europol and other European agencies, conducted a large-scale operation to combat food fraud and protect product authenticity and consumer safety. Focusing on high-value goods, particularly extra virgin olive oil (AOVE), the operation uncovered widespread adulteration, leading to the seizure of thousands of liters of falsely labeled products and the arrest of 50 individuals across Spain. Inspections of over 3 thousand distribution centers and transport facilities revealed mixtures of low-cost oils falsely sold as AOVE, impacting consumers and legitimate producers. This coordinated European effort exposed 11 criminal organizations and resulted in the seizure of food and beverages worth over USD 98.98 million (EUR 91 million).

Turkey

Turkey's Record-Breaking Olive and Olive Oil Production Forecast for 2024/25

The Turkish National Olive and Olive Oil Council (UZZK) announced expectations for Turkey's 2024/25 olive season, predicting 475 thousand tons of olive oil and 750 thousand tons of table olives. This season, a refined crop estimation process led by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry involved extensive field studies to improve accuracy. Turkey, which reached global recognition in olive oil production by securing the world's second position in 2022/23, aims for leadership, buoyed by 200 million olive trees, including a significant increase of two million fruit-bearing trees since last year. Despite some export restrictions and accumulated stock (estimated at 100 to 150 thousand tons), Turkey anticipates record-setting production.

Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters Aim for USD 1.5 Billion in Exports Over Five Years

The Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters' Association's Chairman announced a target to increase exports to USD 1.5 billion over the next five years, emphasizing sustainable growth. Despite a 25% drop in exports in the 2023/24 season, generating USD 726 million due to export restrictions, the sector remains optimistic. The season saw 78 thousand tons of table olives and 70 thousand tons of olive oil exported, valued at USD 210 million and USD 500 million, respectively. Global production is anticipated to recover as weather conditions improve, especially in major producing countries like Spain. Addressing concerns over adulterated olive oil, stringent export controls safeguard product quality, maintaining the sector's commitment to authenticity and international trust.

Olive Harvest Begins in Tiyekli Village Despite Drought

Olive harvesting has started in Tiyekli village, Şahinbey district of Gaziantep, Turkey. Farmers are content with the olive saplings given by the Şahinbey Municipality five years ago. They hope for rain to improve yields for olive oil, as drought has made this difficult. Farmer Zeki Şahin mentioned that new machines have made harvesting more accessible, and workers earn about USD 29.19 (TRL 1 thousand) daily. A barrel of olive oil costs USD 116.77 (TRL 4 thousand).

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W43 2023 to W43 2024)

Spain

In Spain, olive oil prices have declined to USD 7.81/kg in W43, marking a decrease of 1.64% week-on-week (WoW), 4.41% month-on-month (MoM), and 8.76% year-on-year (YoY). Despite various supply issues, including drought conditions expected to reduce yields for the 2024/25 season, recent market adjustments and the depreciation of the EUR against the USD have led to this price drop, exacerbated by concerns over olive oil fraud affecting consumer confidence. However, with Spanish stocks falling to 77,489 tons and anticipated harvest delays due to adverse weather, the outlook suggests that prices will likely rise soon as demand pressures mount against limited supply.

Italy

In Italy, olive oil prices have increased to USD 10.37/kg in W43, reflecting a WoW rise of 3.08%, a MoM increase of 1.57%, and a YoY surge of 12.84%. This upward trend is primarily driven by the projected 32% decline in the 2024/25 olive oil harvest due to drought and extreme heat impacting major producing regions, which has significantly strained supply. Italy's olive oil stocks are also alarmingly low, with only 28 thousand tons of EVOO available, substantially below the monthly demand of 40 thousand tons. As a result, this tight supply situation is expected to exert more upward pressure on prices in the coming weeks as the market grapples with fulfilling domestic and export commitments amid dwindling reserves.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, olive oil prices have declined to USD 7.81/kg in W43, reflecting a significant WoW decrease of 4.64% and a MoM drop of 6.02%. This price drop is primarily attributed to market adjustments following a period of high prices, compounded by the devaluation of the EUR against the USD. Despite the recent decline, there are indicators that prices may rise again shortly. The global olive oil supply remains tight, which could exert upward pressure on Tunisian prices as demand continues to challenge limited availability.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Invest in Quality Assurance

Investing in quality assurance is crucial for olive oil producers, especially in light of the recent crackdown on fraud in Spain. Companies should implement rigorous testing protocols, including chemical analysis and sensory evaluations, to ensure product authenticity. Establishing traceability systems using technologies like blockchain can enhance transparency from olive cultivation to bottling, allowing consumers to verify the origin of their oil. Participation in certification programs such as PDO or organic certifications boosts credibility, while regular staff training on quality standards improves production practices. Additionally, educating consumers about identifying high-quality olive oil through transparent labeling and engaging social media content can build trust and loyalty, enabling brands to command higher prices in a competitive market.

Engage in Sustainable Practices

Olive oil producers should adopt sustainable practices such as organic farming and water conservation techniques like drip irrigation to enhance value and open new markets. Obtaining certifications like organic and carbon-neutral can improve marketability and attract premium pricing. Collaborating with local environmental organizations to promote biodiversity and soil health can strengthen brand reputation. Producers can improve their market position by emphasizing sustainability while contributing positively to the agricultural ecosystem.

Sources: Tridge, Agro CLM, Efe Agro, Eko Trent, Elaias Karpos, Food Mate, IHA, Noticias Agricolas, Oleo, Rue 20, Son Dakika