1. Weekly News

Europe

EU’s 2024 Potato Yield Forecast

The MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) team released its Oct-24 crop yield forecast for the European Union (EU), with notable yield differences across countries. Denmark is expected to achieve the highest average yield at 42.1 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha), while Romania is projected to have the lowest at 14.9 mt/ha. In Poland, yields are forecasted at 28.1 mt/ha, marking a 11% decline from 2021’s 30 mt/ha but still 3% above the five-year average. Across the EU, the average yield for 2024 is anticipated to be around 33.4 mt/ha.

Italy

Sardinia Floods Devastate Potato and Crop Yields

Severe flooding due to intense rainfall has led to extensive agricultural damage in Sardinia, Italy, especially in the central-southern regions of Sulcis, Cagliari, and Medio Campidano. Flooded watercourses have devastated farmland and disrupted residential areas, with Sardinia’s agriculture suffering significant losses. Potatoes have been a brutal hit, as these crops are highly vulnerable to water accumulation, resulting in substantial losses. Other delicate crops, including leafy salads and key regional produce artichokes, have also been affected. Local trade associations actively monitor the situation, gathering impact reports from affected farmers across the island.

Tajikistan

Tajikistan Nears Completion of 2024 Potato Harvest with Strong Yields

Tajikistan has completed its 2024 harvest of potatoes and vegetables. By October 18, it had sown 37,613 ha of potatoes and harvested 31,374 ha, yielding 23.8 mt/ha. The Ministry of Agriculture aims to sustain these high yield rates by expanding cultivation areas for potatoes and vegetables in the coming seasons, supporting further growth in agricultural output.

Ukraine

Ukraine's 2024 Potato Harvest Declined by 18% YoY Due to Drought

According to the First Deputy Minister, Ukraine’s potato harvest is down by 18% year-on-year (YoY) in 2024, primarily due to drought conditions. Despite this reduction, potato prices have remained stable at USD 0.60 to 0.73 per kilogram (kg) for the past 3 to 4 weeks, and no price growth is expected in the near term.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Potato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Potato Pricing Important Exporters (W44 2023 to W44 2024)

France

In W44, wholesale prices for French potatoes held steady week-on-week (WoW) at USD 0.37/kg but saw a 2.63% decrease month-on-month (MoM). This decline is due to challenges during the 2024/25 potato campaign, including adverse weather conditions and increased pressure from plant diseases like mildew. Despite these difficulties, the National Union of Potato Producers (UNPT) remains optimistic, projecting a balanced production and market outlook. France is on track to achieve a record potato harvest, with a 16% YoY increase in cultivated area, reaching 178,190 ha in 2024. This growth, especially in northwestern regions, is driven by solid potato prices and rising demand from chip factories, reinforcing France's position in the global potato market.

Pakistan

In W44, Pakistan's wholesale potato prices rose to USD 0.31/kg, reflecting a 3.33% increase in WoW and a 10.71% rise in MoM. This surge is due to several factors, including a 25% reduction in seed availability caused by currency depreciation, which has raised production costs. Additionally, increased export demand from regional markets such as Afghanistan and the Middle East puts pressure on domestic prices. Logistical challenges have led to localized supply shortages, further exacerbating the upward price trend. These dynamics highlight the challenging environment for potato producers in Pakistan.

Egypt

In W44, Egypt's wholesale potato prices fell to USD 0.30/kg, marking a 6.25% decrease in WoW from USD 0.32/kg in W43. This decline is attributed to the increased supply, coinciding with the onset of winter and the start of production for new crops. The market is seeing abundant production of vegetables such as potatoes, and prices are expected to decline as more winter crops flow into the markets gradually. This drop follows a sharp price increase in Aug-24 and Sep-24. Moreover, the prices have decreased 17.29% YoY, worsened by climate change and a prolonged shortage of US dollars, which has hindered the import of essential potato seeds. Economic challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation, have further exacerbated the situation, reducing yields. Yields dropped from 14-16 mt per acre in 2023 to 9-12 mt per acre in 2024.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Diversify Potato Export Markets in Egypt

To sustain the potato industry’s competitiveness, Egyptian producers should diversify their export markets beyond the current primary destinations. Egyptian potato exporters can reduce dependence on fluctuating domestic production levels and market conditions by seeking new markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Europe. Strengthening trade relations with these regions and participating in agricultural trade fairs can help establish long-term contracts and boost demand. Furthermore, increasing investment in the quality and packaging of potatoes for export can position Egypt as a reliable supplier in global markets, mitigating the effects of currency depreciation and local economic challenges.

Implement Climate-Resilient Farming Practices in Flood-Prone Areas

To mitigate the impact of future flooding, Italian farmers should adopt climate-resilient farming practices by implementing proper drainage systems to prevent water accumulation and adopting flood-resistant crop varieties where possible. Moreover, farmers could explore planting more water-tolerant crops in regions highly susceptible to flooding. Sardinia’s agricultural community should also invest in weather forecasting tools to anticipate extreme weather events and adjust planting schedules accordingly. This will help to reduce the economic burden of natural disasters and protect the livelihoods of local farmers.

Improve Seed Availability and Address Logistical Challenges

Private-sector companies and agricultural cooperatives can play a crucial role in improving seed access to address the reduction in seed availability in Pakistan. For instance, local seed producers could collaborate with international suppliers to enhance the variety and quality of seeds available to farmers, ensuring a better yield. Furthermore, companies could invest in creating more efficient supply chains for seed distribution, especially in rural areas where farmers face the most difficulty accessing quality seeds. Strengthening private-sector logistics and transportation services could also mitigate the localized supply shortages, ensuring that potatoes reach domestic and export markets more reliably. The private sector can help stabilize potato prices and exploit export opportunities to neighboring markets like Afghanistan and the Middle East by improving seed quality and addressing logistical bottlenecks.

Sources: Eastfruit, Terravita, Farmer.pl, EGmasrawy