W48: Weekly Sunflower Update

Ukraine

Ukrainian Sunflower Prices Will Depend on Blackouts

The price of sunflower may be adversely impacted by the energy crisis in Ukraine, particularly the access to electricity for oil producers. On the contrary, prices can go up if there are no blackouts. In W47, Ukraine's sunflower campaign is complete, with 9.7MMT of sunflower oil collected. The remaining sunflowers that were left in the fields as a result of the weather will be replanted. The demand for sunflowers from importers and processors determines its price. In W47, the price for a batch of 400–500MT of sunflower is USD 457.97/MT, but this varies greatly by region. A short-term price rise is not possible because importers have already purchased enough oil. 

The market may be significantly impacted if the energy situation worsens. If the Russian Federation keeps destroying the energy infrastructure, Ukraine will have processing issues, and farmers will need to concentrate more on sunflower seed exports. However, the EU cannot process the quantity of Ukrainian sunflower. Romania and Bulgaria, in particular, are experts in processing soybeans but don't actually have the capacity to process sunflowers. Prices for sunflowers could decrease dramatically in such a situation. By the end of December, sunflower prices could reach USD 538.78/MT if the factory electricity supply does not worsen.

Purchase Prices for Sunflowers Are Increasing, Despite Difficulties With Processing and Export

The increase in purchase prices for sunflower was prompted by a shortage of offers and active exports of seeds, which resulted in a further slowdown in exports and problems in the operations of oil processing businesses. Due to the severe weather in Istanbul, starting November 19, no more than five ships depart Ukrainian ports each day, compared to up to ten ships in the previous week. The sunflower purchase price in Ukraine rose by an additional USD 13.47/MT during W47, reaching USD 440–450/MT with delivery to the factory. Under the weight of declining soybean and canola prices in the EU, export prices for sunflower with delivery on DAP—from Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria—remain at USD 550–570/MT.

The 7–10-day queue at crossing points with Romania and Bulgaria reduced the activity of deliveries in this direction. According to the European Commission, EU farmers boosted their imports of sunflower during W46 of November by 13,000MT to 77,000MT, and in 2022/23, EU imports totaled 1.16MMT, which is 6.7 times more than they imported during the same period 2021, when they bought 172,700MT.

Russia

Sunflower Harvest in Russia in 2022 May Reach 16-16.4MMT

Despite the adverse weather conditions in some areas of the country, the Russian Federation's 2022 sunflower harvest may exceed 16–16.4 MMT, a record amount. Additionally, the sunflower market has been showing a significant upward trend with price in recent weeks.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Led to an Increase in the Export of Sunflower Oil From Russia

The Russian Federation exported 344,600MT of sunflower oil in the first two months of the season, which is from September to October 2022, more than double the similar amount in 2021. It should be noted that the top importers of Russian sunflower oil are Turkey with 136,000MT, followed by China with 82,000MT, and India with 34,000MT. Market participants attribute the rise in exports to both the increased production of sunflower oil this season and favourable market conditions, including zero export duty and a reduction in supplies from Ukraine.

In Russia, the First Batch of Sunflower Oil Was Sent From the Oryol Region to China

Russia's Oryol area sent China its first shipment of sunflower oil in November 2022. 2,000MT of sunflower oil were sold to China. Plant health certifications were provided by the Rosselkhoznadzor Department for export shipments of Oryol sunflower oil.

Argentina

Sunflower and Wheat Seed Sales in Argentina Increased in 2022 When Compared to 2021 

Argentina's farmers increased the sale of wheat and sunflower seeds harvested in MY 2021/22 to 22.9 MMT and 2.8 MMT, respectively, as of November 23, compared to 17.2 MMT and 2.7 MMT in 2020/21. However, the forward sales volumes of these products from the new crop are still lower than the outcomes of the previous year, at 5.8MMT from 11MMT for wheat and 103,900MT from 649,000MT, respectively.

Argentina Is Improving the Profiles and State of the Sunflower Crops

The improvement in the humidity in the south of the agricultural area of Argentina promotes the planting of sunflower boxes. In W48, 93.4% of the 2M hectares projected for the 2022/23 campaign have already been planted. Regarding the condition, 89.4% of the farmers report that the crop in the region that has already been planted is in good to outstanding condition. On the contrary, weed control issues are evident in the west of the agricultural area despite significant rains in November.

Turkey

Turkey Exported Seeds to 132 Countries Worth USD 150.8M in the First Nine Months of 2022

Turkey's seed exports are increasing in 2022, mainly in summer greenhouse vegetable seeds, including sunflower and wheat varieties. Turkish seeds are exported to 132 countries, mainly the USA, France, Germany, China, the Netherlands, Spain, Chile, Brazil, Turkish Republics and all European countries. In 2021, seed exports totaled USD 185M, while seed imports totaled USD 205M. In the first nine months of 2022, seed exports totaled USD 150.8M, while imports totaled USD 137.8M. For the first time in 2022, Turkey's exports are ahead of its imports. The goal for 2023 is to increase seed exports to USD 250M while reducing imports to USD 180-190M.

Germany

Germany Has More Than Doubled the Area Sown With Sunflowers

The sunflower sown area in Germany in 2022 has increased by 123% YoY to 84 thousand hectares. Sunflower farming was formerly unusual in German fields, but it saw a rise after the Russia-Ukraine war. Many farmers in Germany switched to growing sunflowers as a result of the dramatic increase in the price of oilseeds and sunflower oil in 2021, as well as the country's supply crisis. Nonetheless, it remains a specialised crop, as there are no field trials or a list of countrywide established cultivars.

The majority of Germany's sunflower-growing areas are in the east, with a smaller amount in the south. The largest areas are in the province of Brandenburg (29,600 hectares), followed by Saxony-Anhalt (22,700 hectares).

Spain

The sale sunflower oil in October fell by 17% YoY in Spain

In October, sales of bottled sunflower oil decreased by 16.88% YoY compared to 2021, to 22.35M litres. Between January and October 2022, sales of sunflower oil decreased by 7.42% YoY, reaching 219.16M litres.

South Africa

The Production Estimate of South African Sunflower Seed Remains at 845,550MT

In South Africa, the production estimate for 2022/23 sunflower seed was left unchanged at 845,550MT. Estimated sunflower seed production covers 670,700 ha, with a yield of 1.26 t/ha.

China

High-Quality Sunflower Was Harvested in China in W48

Sunflower seed season came in Xinjiang province, China. As the largest sunflower seed production area, Xinjiang harvested over 8K Mu (53.33M sqm) seeds in 2022. Due to the high quality of the sunflower seed, over 50% of the products will be used for the local market, and the rest will be exported to other markets such as Europe and the Middle East.