April 2025 Outlook Report: Meat

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,196.90 per 40-foot container in Mar-25, marking a 29.79% month-on-month (MoM) drop and a 24.70% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The drop was mainly driven by the seasonal demand slump following Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 and the end of frontloading activities. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index averaged 118.01 points in Mar-25, marking a 0.85% MoM increase, driven by rising prices for pork, lamb, and beef.

- Beef: United States (US) beef exports may face pressure from recent tariff hikes and retaliation in Apr-25, potentially lowering export prices, though tight supplies could keep them relatively high. Brazil’s prices are expected to remain firm amid strong global demand, despite setbacks in China and the US. Australian beef remains competitive, supported by solid demand and a favorable position relative to Brazil, which now faces a 36.5% US tariff. In the European Union (EU), ongoing supply constraints from reduced cattle inventories and disease outbreaks are likely to keep prices elevated.

- Poultry: US poultry export prices are expected to remain high in Apr-25, supported by balanced supply and demand. Brazilian chicken prices are likely to stay relatively stable, with strong international demand and trade shifts due to US tariffs offering short-term support despite ample supply. In the EU, poultry prices are likely to rise further, driven by strong domestic demand, chicken’s price advantage over other meats, and increased consumption ahead of the Easter holiday.

- Pork: Despite strong global demand, US pork export prices may decline due to rising tariffs in key markets like Canada and China. In contrast, Brazil’s prices are expected to remain high in Apr-25, supported by robust demand and expanding exports. EU prices may also rise slightly, supported by the United Kingdom (UK) resuming imports from Germany.

- Lamb: Lamb prices in New Zealand are expected to stay firm in the coming months, driven by strong global demand and tight supply. In Australia, sustained Easter-related demand is likely to support a modest rise in export prices in Apr-25.