December 2024 Outlook Report: Meat

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,548.52 per 40-foot container in Nov-24, a 1.02% month-on-month (MoM) increase. The rise is attributed to frontloading in anticipation of a potential International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) port strike in Jan-25 and expected tariff increases stemming from the recent United States (US) election outcomes. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index averaged 118.15 points, reflecting a 0.78% MoM decline but a 6.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase.

- Beef: Global beef export prices are expected to maintain elevated levels in Dec-24 and into 2025, driven by persistent supply constraints and robust international demand. In the US, limited supply and strong global interest continue to support high export prices. Similarly, Brazil’s beef export prices are anticipated to continue an upward trend, supported by sustained demand and emerging trade opportunities. In the European Union (EU), beef prices are projected to remain elevated, driven by strong domestic consumption and export demand. Meanwhile, Australia’s beef export prices are expected to remain relatively stable despite reduced purchasing from the US in Nov-24, as other markets offset the dip in US demand.

- Poultry: US poultry export prices are anticipated to remain relatively stable in Dec-24, underpinned by balanced supply-demand dynamics despite ongoing export challenges related to avian flu outbreak. Brazil’s chicken export prices are expected to stay elevated, driven by robust global demand, particularly from key markets like China, Japan, and the Middle East. EU poultry prices are likely to continue on an upward trend, fueled by increasing consumer demand for poultry products as a versatile and cost-effective protein option.

- Pork: US pork prices are expected to decline in Dec-24 due to the market adjusting to a supply-demand imbalance, where export growth meets weak consumption in key markets. Meanwhile, Brazil's pork export prices are projected to remain elevated due to sustained global demand, successful market diversification efforts, and favorable trade agreements, which continue to bolster its competitive positioning. Conversely, EU pork prices are anticipated to stay low as ample market supplies meet sluggish domestic demand.

- Lamb: Australia's lamb export prices are forecasted to remain relatively stable in Dec-24, supported by steady global demand and consistent export flows. New Zealand's lamb prices are expected to increase, driven by a projected reduction in lamb slaughter volumes.