February 2025 Outlook Report: Vegetables

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,945.46 per 40-foot container in Jan-25, marking a 7.3% rise from Dec-24 and a significant 35.63% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This rise was driven by general rate increases (GRIs), pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, and global trade tensions. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 124.29 points in Jan-25, marking a 3.91% month-on-month (MoM) increase, driven by higher prices for urea, diammonium phosphate (DAP), and potassium chloride.

- Potato: On Jan-25, French, Dutch, and Egyptian potato markets reflected shifting supply dynamics. French prices remained stable due to strong production, while Dutch prices surged 180% MoM as storage stocks tightened and demand from Belgium, Germany, and Algeria grew. Egyptian prices fell 26.67% MoM following the Nili (autumn) harvest, boosting supply but maintaining strong export momentum, especially to the United Kingdom (UK) and Myanmar. With European production set to decline 8.8% YoY, tighter supply may drive further price increases, particularly in Dutch and French markets.

- Tomato: On Jan-25, tomato markets in Mexico, Morocco, and Spain saw sharp price movements due to shifting supply dynamics. Mexican prices fell 38.81% MoM as Sinaloa's peak season boosted supply, while weaker United States (US) demand further pressured prices. Moroccan prices doubled MoM, rebounding from Dec-24 lows due to cold weather delaying harvests. Spanish prices surged 68.33% MoM, driven by tight supply and strong export demand from Germany, France, and the Netherlands. While European production constraints may keep markets volatile, seasonal trends should stabilize pricing in the coming months.

- Onion: On Jan-25, onion prices across key markets saw significant fluctuations. India experienced a sharp 39.47% MoM decline due to oversupply from delayed arrivals and fresh crop influx, while prices remained 9.52% higher YoY due to weather disruptions and increased production costs. In Mexico, prices dropped by 29.67% MoM as cold weather disruptions eased and a delayed export season resulted in more domestic availability. Meanwhile, Egypt saw a 31.25% MoM price drop driven by increased domestic production and improved logistics, though prices were still 57.69% lower YoY due to favorable harvesting conditions and better market efficiency.