January 2025 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 3,634.40 per 40-foot container in Dec-24, a 2.42% month-on-month (MoM) increase. This rise is attributed to increased pre-Lunar New Year (LNY) 2025 demand, frontloading in anticipation of the now-averted International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) port strike slated for Jan-25 and expected tariff hikes. Meanwhile, the World Bank's fertilizer index dropped by 0.09% MoM to an average of 119.61 points in Dec-24. This minimal decline was primarily driven by a drop in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices, which offset an increase in potassium chloride.

- Coffee: Brazilian Arabica and Robusta prices are forecast to increase due to limited supply. Low domestic supply is expected to put upward pressure on Colombian prices in Jan-25. Vietnamese coffee prices are predicted to decrease due to increased supply.

- Sugar: Improved crop prospects are expected to keep prices stable in India. Sugar prices in Brazil are expected to increase as trading activity picks up following the end of year recess.

- Tea: Indian tea prices are forecast to remain bearish in Jan-25 due to improved supply. Tridge predicts that tea prices in Kenya will remain low due to increased supply at the Mombasa Tea Auction, while Sri Lankan prices are expected to trade up due to positive demand.

- Cocoa: Tridge forecasts that cocoa prices will remain elevated in Jan-25. This bullish trend will likely persist as supply challenges in West Africa remain unresolved.