June 2025 Outlook Report: Oils

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,123.76 per 40-foot container in May-25, marking a 3.8% month-on-month (MoM) rise but a 31.25% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. The recent price increase is largely attributed to a rebound in China–United States (US) ocean freight demand after they both temporarily rolled back their retaliatory tariffs by 115% from May 14. Meanwhile, the World Bank's Fertilizer Index averaged 133.20 points, marking a 3.06% MoM increase and a 22.82% YoY rise. This overall gain was driven by price increases in key fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP), potassium chloride, and urea.

- Soybean Oil: US soybean prices are expected to remain firm in Jun-25 due to bullish momentum in the US soybean oil market. Similarly, sustained market activity and continued export interest are expected to keep Argentinian prices elevated.

- Palm Oil: As production gains continue to accelerate in Jun-25, Malaysian palm oil prices are expected to remain on a downward trend.

- Sunflower Oil: In Ukraine and Russia, restricted domestic supply due to strong export demand is set to sustain the ongoing bullish trend, while limited stocks are expected to keep prices in the European Union (EU) high.