September 2025 Outlook Report: Coffee, Sugar, Tea, and Cocoa

- Key Indicators: Global freight prices averaged USD 2,107.65/40-foot container in Aug-25, a 16.7% month-on-month (MoM) decline and a 59.9% year-on-year (YoY) drop, driven by the easing of peak-season demand after Jul-25 and the earlier frontloading of volumes ahead of tariff deadlines. Meanwhile, the World Bank’s Fertilizer Index averaged 156.29 points, a 1.14% MoM increase and a 30.22% YoY rise. The overall gain was driven by notable price increases in urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP), which outweighed a slight decline in potassium chloride.

- Coffee: Brazil is expected to diversify exports and boost specialty coffee consumption as United States (US) tariffs persist, with tight supply supporting prices despite favorable weather. In Colombia and Vietnam, domestic prices are expected to stay firm in the near term, though volatility remains likely if international benchmarks weaken.

- Sugar: Brazilian sugar prices are likely to stay supported by 2025/26 production concerns in the Center–South region, though gains may be capped by ample supply expected from the 2026/27 crop. In India, prices are anticipated to remain broadly stable on strong cane yields and government oversight, with mild upward pressure possible if ethanol demand rises or exports are curtailed to secure domestic supply.

- Tea: India’s abundant supply may keep bulk tea prices subdued despite steady demand for premium teas. Kenya’s unfavourable weather-affected tea output is anticipated to support stable to slightly higher auction prices, though gains are likely to be capped by weak demand. In Sri Lanka, tea prices are expected to hold firm on Middle Eastern demand, but competition and structural challenges may limit further upside.

- Cocoa: Cocoa prices are likely to stay high but volatile, driven by West African supply risks and weather uncertainty, while weak demand and cautious optimism for the 2025/26 crop may limit further gains.