UK: Could a smaller domestic wheat crop impact bread prices?

Published 2024년 8월 1일

Tridge summary

The AHDB's 2024 Planting and Variety Survey predicts a decrease in the UK wheat area to 1.56 Mha, the second smallest since 1981, which could increase the price of bread and other wheat-based products due to a smaller domestic supply. Wet growing conditions have negatively affected the quality and yield of the crop. As a result, the milling wheat premium has surged to its highest average since 2000/01, driven by increased milling demand and a smaller domestic supply. To fulfill this demand, wheat imports have risen, and it is expected that this trend will persist into the 2024/25 marketing year. Despite the increased exposure of milling wheat premiums to global wheat markets, the price of bread on the shelf will continue to be primarily influenced by factors later in the supply chain.

Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Sign up to receive the Weekly Market Report and Grain Market Daily from AHDB. AHDB’s 2024 Planting and Variety Survey (PVS) results forecast UK wheat area at 1.56 Mha, the second smallest area since 1981 (after 2020). While the proportion of the crop made up of UK flour groups 1 and 2 remained broadly unchanged from last year, the considerably smaller area tightens the supply of the domestic breadmaking wheat crop. AHDB crop development reports in spring reported that the wet growing conditions impacted root development, input applications (e.g. fertiliser) and seed germination for the UK wheat crop, spurring concerns regarding quality and yield. For the final AHDB crop development report before 2024 harvest, 56% of winter wheat was rated good or excellent, markedly lower than the three-year average (2021 – 2023) for July of 73%. In July, the USDA forecasted UK wheat production at 10.85 Mt, substantially lower than historical production where the five-year average (2019 – 2023) is ...

Source: Ahdb